Friday, August 2, 2013

Saharan Air Layer Puts Hold on Tropical Activity

Dry air has moved off of Africa as part of the Saharan Air Layer, resulting in lowered chances for tropical activity over the next several days.

In recent days, an intense layer of dry air has shifted west from Northern Africa, resulting in not only stunning satellite images, but also a decreased chance for tropical development in the eastern Atlantic and for tropical waves coming off of Africa. I anticipate that we should see this outbreak of dry air dissipating over the next week or two, which should allow tropical waves over Africa a better chance for tropical development.

Model guidance indicates chances of tropical development will increase after the 5 day mark from today, which is roughly the time we will see the dry air moving further through the Atlantic and dissipating in the process.