Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Civil Emergency Message- Voluntary Evacuation- Suwannee County, FL

FLC121-270800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
552 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF SUWANNEE
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THERE IS A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND LOCATIONS
NEAR RIVERS...STREAMS...AND CREEKS IN SUWANNEE COUNTY.

A SHELTER HAS BEEN OPENED AT THE COLISEUM...1302 11TH
STREET...LIVE OAK. PEOPLE WHO DECIDE TO EVACUATE LOW LYING AREAS
SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION...AND SHOULD NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

OTHERWISE...TRAVEL ACROSS SUWANNEE COUNTY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
THE SUWANNEE COUNTY SHERIFF`S OFFICE REQUESTS THAT PEOPLE STAY AT
HOME AND OFF THE ROADS TONIGHT. NUMEROUS ROADS ARE UNDER
WATER...SEVERAL FEET DEEP IN SOME LOCATIONS.

A BOIL WATER NOTICE IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SUWANNEE COUNTY. BRING
WATER TO A FULL ROLLING BOIL FOR AT LEAST ONE MINUTE AND ALLOW TO
COOL BEFORE DRINKING OR USING IN FOOD PREPARATION.

IF YOU HAVE FLOODING IMPACTING YOUR HOME...YOU CAN CALL THE
FOLLOWING PHONE NUMBER FOR ASSISTANCE..386-364-3405

Civil Emergency Message- Voluntary Evacuation- Nassau County, FL (Jacksonville, FL)

FLC089-270400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
655 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF NASSAU
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THERE IS A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF LOW-LYING AREAS IN NASSAU
COUNTY. A SHELTER HAS BEEN OPENED AT THE HILLIARD MIDDLE-SENIOR
HIGH SCHOOL...ONE FLASHES AVENUE. PEOPLE WHO DECIDE TO EVACUATE
LOW-LYING AREAS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION...AND SHOULD NOT CROSS
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

IF YOU HAVE FLOODING IMPACTING YOUR HOME...YOU CAN CALL THE
FOLLOWING PHONE NUMBER FOR ASSISTANCE: 904-548-4980 OR 911 FOR AN
EMERGENCY

Dust Storm Warning- Tucson, AZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
359 PM MST TUE JUN 26 2012


AZZ502>505-515-270100-
/O.NEW.KTWC.DS.W.0004.120626T2259Z-120627T0100Z/
TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION-UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-
TUCSON METRO AREA-SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...PICACHO PEAK STATE PARK
359 PM MST TUE JUN 26 2012

...DUST STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A DUST STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING STRONG OUTFLOWS CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY NEAR THREE POINTS...AND
WILL BUILD NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AND THE TOHONO
OODHAM NATION.

* WINDS...40 TO 60 MPH WITH STRONGEST OUTFLOWS.

* VISIBILITY...BELOW A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SEVERE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH VERY HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DUST STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERELY LIMITED VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH BLOWING DUST. BLOWING DUST CAN QUICKLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY...CAUSING ACCIDENTS THAT MAY INVOLVE CHAIN COLLISIONS
AND MULTIPLE PILEUPS. IF DENSE DUST IS OBSERVED BLOWING ACROSS OR
APPROACHING A ROADWAY...PULL YOUR VEHICLE OFF THE PAVEMENT AS FAR
AS POSSIBLE TO STOP. TURN OFF THE LIGHTS...SET THE EMERGENCY
BRAKE...AND TAKE YOUR FOOT OFF OF THE BRAKE PEDAL TO ENSURE BRAKE
LIGHTS ARE NOT ILLUMINATED.

PERSONS WITH RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS SHOULD STAY INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

Heat Related Warnings, Watches Flying

Heat related warnings and watches are being thrown up throughout the center of the country in advance of a heat wave that should reach its peak on Thursday, when places like Chicago could meet or slightly surpass 100 degrees. Much more on this tomorrow.

Andrew

Debby Makes Landfall in Florida

Imagery from the Advanced Dvorak Technique system (ADT) is showing the center of Debby just onshore Florida, indicating that Debby has indeed made landfall. Debby is expected to then shift east and out to sea.

Andrew

Buoy in Eye of Debby Records 60 Knot Wind Gust

Buoy SGOF1, just offshore of Florida, was in the eye of Debby and did record the highest wind gust I have seen from Debby.

SGOF1 observed a wind gust of nearly 60 knots, which equates to roughly 70 MPH. Considering that this is how strong Debby was just offshore, it makes things a little more believable as to any wind damage that has been observed on land.

Andrew

Tropics Forecast Looking Relatively Modest

The forecast off the CFS of the MJO is looking like we may see some activity by Africa. Enhanced convection appears to be in the works in that region in the next couple weeks, with another bout of storminess by late July. The MJO should support low opportunities for tropical cyclone formation in the East Pacific in the next few weeks, and this could continue into August.

The movement of this convection shows me that the MJO should stay within Phases 8-3 for a while as dry conditions stay farther towards Asia, and enhanced convection appears in the Atlantic. However, getting into July, we see dry conditions spread east, signaling a progressing MJO into the middle phases.

So what does all of this mean? I am expecting potentially another opportunity for tropical development in the eastern Atlantic as the MJO favors enhanced convection in that area. Additionally, there should be below normal thunderstorm activity in the Eastern Pacific due to unfavorable upper level winds.

Andrew

Heat Wave to Obliterate Records on Thursday

Temperature Records for Thursday are expected to be demolished as a massive dome of heat moves over the central US, as pictured in this NAM forecast from Twisterdata. Much of the central and southern US is shown to receive temperatures flirting with or surpassing 100 degrees. Chicago's forecast is for 100 degrees, and 110 degrees+ looks to be possible for portions of Kansas.

Now, this is unsurprisingly a skeptical forecast. Temperatures this high in these places is not common in the slightest. While not exactly rare, when this magnitude of a heat wave arrives, records are usually broken. However, a glance at some NWS forecast discussions reveal that the GFS is appearing too cool with this event. For that reason, I am using the NAM for this forecast.

Andrew

Debby to Ram Florida, Be Pushed Out to Sea

Tropical Storm Debby has begun to move east at 3 MPH, and this very slow movement is expected to continue until late Wednesday, when Debby begins to rev up and crash into Florida. When Debby does crash into Florida, it can be expected that weakening into a tropical depression will occur.

Following the Florida landfall, the NHC track takes Debby on a curving northeast path that appears to be going out to sea. Considering a climatologically favorable track is for Debby to curve up the coast and possibly hit New England (like many winter storms), that would be a favored option. However, the forecast models are finally in agreement that Debby should be kicked out to sea from the get-go after leaving Florida.

This seems likely, considering a cold front with trailing high pressure will be pushing south, resulting in a squeeze of Debby eastward. At that point, Debby will be too far away from the coast to hug it.

Andrew