Confidence remains low, but we will closely watch this situation.
Friday, January 27, 2012
My confidence is very low, and this is only just a mention of a possible snowfall.
Questions may be asked in comments.
|1mb level temperatures|
Recent stratosphere prognosis is a grim one upon observation of recent stratospheric temperatures. Image above displays 1mb temperatures. Looking at this image, it is apparent that significant cooling in the stratosphere has occurred, even leading to the erase of this winter's previous sudden stratospheric warming. This is only a small slice of the cake. . .as the 1mb level is just the top of the stratosphere. There remains a lot to look over.
|Analysis of temperature anomalies by heights|
I expect cooling to continue from the 1mb level into the 50mb levels, which are currently experiencing cooling, and possibly propagate down to the 70mb level. Seeing the peak of the current warming in the 70mb level coming on soon, I would not be surprised to find a cooling trend put a dent in the recent warming at that level.
As a consequence from all this cooling. . .my winter outlook is grim. This warming will not come soon enough to provide any pattern change in February. The best I am hoping for is cold shots following storms. I still am expecting snowstorms to occur, but not with the cold that would typically be in place. Therefore. . .I believe ice storm risks are increased.
I will have a February-March outlook out tomorrow at 12:00 PM CST. For those banking on my colder and snowier outlook. . .new day, new outlook. . .