Sunday, October 7, 2012

Cold Waves Oscillating Across ENSO Regions

The latest image of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific indicates a few 'waves' of colder than normal waters oscillating (moving) through the ENSO regions. This is not a regular movement of water, as the arc-like shape of the cold waters, and their tendency to move in the same direction at the same latitude is concerning.

It is known that recently, the El Nino suddenly dropped off the radar. It is only now that we are beginning to see defined cold waves oscillate across the ENSO region. I find this event to be related to the ENSO teleconnection, as these bodies of water are shaped in arc formations- unusual in the rest of the world. Additionally, there are more than 4 of these waves that are all moving on the same latitude. Also, notice how these 'waves' are the same distance apart from one another. This feature is not evident in waves towards the 180 degree longitude line, but is shown to the east.

What does this mean for the ENSO? Until these 'waves' dissipate (if they ever do), the El nino will most likely not be able to get itself back on it feet. I can easily see this El Nino gone for the winter season. I will watch for it to reappear, but for now, things are not looking that good.

Andrew

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

I don't get how people have to be so nervous about a neutral winter. Doesn't that mean things will be more unpredictable with more temp swings? We can still get a good winter in the SE in a neutral winter...granted anything beats last year...

ERN WX said...

I am fine with a neutral winter. A slgtly snwr than avg winter is favored for E coast. Still the Nino will redevelop. Japanese fcstrs note it. Pattern is GOOD for us.

mike paulocsak said...

I myself want a neutral winter! An El-NINO is no good for my region in Ohio.A neutral would be more exciting for me.You just don't know what one week will be to the next.I like winters more exciting and hard to predict.Regardless if there is an el-nino or not,we all have a decent chance of heavy snow.

Anonymous said...

Neutral winters have always produced decent LES events...that's what I'm hoping for this year.

ERIE Wx.