Monday, April 30, 2012

Discussion Concerning Multi-Day Severe Weather Threat (Tuesday-Wednesday)

This is a discussion concerning the multi-day severe weather potential for Tuesday and Wednesday. Further dates will not be included due to a lack of confidence.

Overview
Zonal flow of the jet stream aloft will carry several disturbances along its track. One of these disturbances will involve the lifting of a warm front north into the northern US, engulfing the Midwest and Plains in the warm sector of hot temperatures and humid air. As this happens, a cold front will eventually become present in the western portion of the Plains states before moving eastward.

Factors
Because this will be a zonal flow jet stream, indicating that the jet stream will be on the Canada/US border, that is where we will find the dynamics of shearing associated with this event. Bulk shearing will take place in Wisconsin, which is a reason for the slight risk included in the entire area of Wisconsin. However, slightly lower temperatures and associated dewpoints will act to level out the severe aspect. Nonetheless, the remains potential for some intense weather in that area.
Farther to the south, in north Illinois and the like, hotter temperatures and higher dewpoints will make for a hot, muggy day. Because dry air requires more heat to rise, expect convection to be fairly quick to get started. This may very well be hampered, however, especially without the aid of the jet stream, which will be displaced to the north. However, temperatures in the 70s-80s may be able to ignite some convection. If this happens, the main threats would include damaging wind and large hail. Tornadoes do not appear to be a concern south of Wisconsin, in north Illinois.

Caveats
As mentioned previously, dry air requires more heat to rise. This normally would push down convection chances in Wisconsin, but the presence of the jet stream will cover that loss.

Summary
In the end, I find it more likely that the Wisconsin/Illinois border and north will get in on some of the strongest convection, while areas like North Illinois and possibly southern Iowa may be slotted out of this event. Time will tell.

Storm Prediction Center Issues Slight Risk for Wednesday; Higher Risk Possible


Probability of Severe Weather
The Storm Prediction Center did issue a slight risk today, which was not a surprise to me. However, in the discussion associated with these images, they did mention the potential of a higher risk upgrade in the future. That said, I think there is potential for some more intense weather than what is being pictured here.

I do not have a lot of time to write this, but I can tell you that I will be following this event closely, as it originally started out in the 4-8 day range- something reserved for eventual moderate risk areas or the like.

Severe Weather Possible Today for Plains, Ohio Valley

Overall Risk

Hail Threat

Tornado Threat
There is a risk of severe weather today in the Plains and Ohio Valley.

The Plains will experience a typical dry line scenario, with storms igniting in western Oklahoma, northern Texas, and southwestern Kansas. These storms will likely have some form of rotation in them based on tornado threats, so people in those areas should keep an eye to the skies.

There is also an enhanced threat for large hail in the areas mentioned above. Because the storms may get so large and may have some rotation, it is very possible that the intensity of the storms will create abnormally large hail.

A frontal boundary is currently in the vicinity of southern portions of the Ohio Valley, and this should be the focus for some showers and storms to develop today. If they do develop, expect the main threats to be wind and hail, with a very low risk of a tornado.

Flash Flooding Likely in Plains as Heavy Rainfall Continues Today

There is a 'high' probability of excessive rainfall in Northern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, with a moderate threat in northern Oklahoma, southeast Oklahoma, southwestern and central Missouri.

As of 6:26 AM CDT, several flash flooding events were ongoing. With another 1-3 inches of rain expected today, the situation will only get worse today and tomorrow before things begin to ease off.

I advise everyone in the 'high' risk area to prepare for evacuations if you are by an overflowing stream of creek. If you are driving and see a flooded roadway, remember: Turn around, don't drown.


Sunday, April 29, 2012

Storm Prediction Center Removes Wednesday Threat; Severe Potential Still Remains

The Storm Prediction Center has deleted the outline for severe weather on Wednesday into Thursday as the zonal flow of the jet stream ('zonal', meaning the jet stream is moving on the US/Canada border) is progressing several disturbances that are all equally hard to track. However, I still believe there is a severe weather risk associated with this potential.

What we see here is a chart of 925mb dewpoints for 7:00 PM CDT on May 2nd. What I do when I see high dewpoints is look for equally heightened temperatures to indicate that the area in question is indeed under a warm sector of air- one that may produce strong to severe storms. As you can see, the GFS model has a wide swath of high dewpoints from Oklahoma to the Ohio Valley. However, I am more concerned with particularly the Midwest and South Plains, due to what seems to be almost a propulsion of higher dewpoints directly from Texas to the Midwest. I am concerned with the Southern Plains due to the extreme dewpoint gradient in western Texas and Oklahoma.

As explained, high dewpoints can indicate instability. The image above is instability values, and you can see just how intense this could get, with widespread values over 2000 units, sufficient for severe weather. As I had mentioned earlier, there appears to be a stream of high dewpoints from Texas directly into the Midwest. This is directly reciprocated into instability values from Oklahoma into Missouri and Illinois. I worry that early showers and storms may depress instability values, but it does appear that enough instability could be in place for some stronger storms later on.
Let's take a look at the GFS/ECMWF comparison of 850mb temperatures. First is the GFS, next is the ECMWF. Both are valid at 7:00 PM CDT May 2nd.


A comparison reveals that the ECMWF involves a hotter warm sector than the GFS does. This additional warm air could very well mean that the ECMWF is positioning the severe threat higher than the GFS is. However, due to the restriction of many ECMWF graphics, I am unable to confirm this.

In summary, just because the SPC has removed the risk does not mean the risk is not there, because I do believe it is based on what I have shown above.

Andrew

Saturday, April 28, 2012

May 2012 Outlook

Good midday everyone, this is your May 2012 outlook. Let's start out by observing what has happened in the atmosphere over the past 30 days.

Over the past 30 days, mean heights have indicated the presence of a ridge of high pressure over much of the country, meaning warm temperatures for that area. This is due in part to the below normal anomalies just below Alaska.
The reason this is being looked at is because weather tends to be fairly straightforward from one month to the next (in some cases), and we can use this to or advantage and forecast the next month by observing the past month.

In the past month, we have had spells of warm weather, which have been interrupted more frequently by cooler periods of weather, especially in the past couple weeks. Some talk has been swirling around the weather world that this is the long awaited pattern change. However, since I don't have the proper observation tools to see for myself (or the willpower to see if snow will be falling in May), I do not want to comment on that right now.


Here is an analysis of 30 days of observed temperatures, ending at April 26. As you can see, much of the eastern US was slightly above normal, whereas the Plains and eastern Rockies were much above normal. The West Coast was indeed cooler than normal. I find that this is likely to be a good indicator for temperatures in the May forecast. These temperatures may have been significantly raised due to the massive heat wave experienced in March, so that possibility will be taken into account in the May outlook.

Recently, the storm track for the US has been centered around storms entering from the Southwest and shifting east into either the Southern Plains or central Plains. The Southern Plains storms were the big severe weather storms, while the central Plains storms also had some interesting events. The point I'm trying to make is that these same areas may get more severe weather in the future.

I will not be making forecasts for indices like the NAO, PNA, AO due to their day to day variability and common sense finding that concept of forecasting a day to day variable over a month to be on the lower part of the forecast accuracy spectrum.

All of that said, let's take a look at the May 2012 Outlook.
I am expecting cooler temperatures in the far northern Plains as well as the West Coast based on past below average temperatures in those areas. More important involves where the traditional Tornado Alley will be. In the past, that area moves east with time, and I believe that I will follow history for this one and have indicated that the risk area will be shifting north and east. The entire eastern US should eventually average out to average or slightly above average temperatures, but I am not going to rule out the potential for a big heat wave that rings average temperatures well above normal.

Any questions can be posted below.
Andrew

Midwest Outlined in 4-8 Day Severe Weather Outlook

A 4-8 day outlook has been issued for severe weather, indicating that the area shaded has at least a 30% chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any point. This is valid for May 2. My area is included in this, so expect a low of posts concerning it, adding to the fact that it is the first big event in a little while.
Let's take a look at a few maps for the event. Here is the instability forecast for May 2. All maps are valid at 7:00 PM CDT May 2nd.

Here is the instability forecast. You can see very large amounts of instability located mainly in western Oklahoma, but also back towards the area outlined in the Midwest and eastern Plains. You can see where the warm front cuts off by seeing where the instability ends in southern Wisconsin. However, that may be where the highest tornado potential is, as frontal boundaries are known to have tornado-enhancing characteristics with them.

Here is the shearing forecast for 7:00 PM CDT. The highest shearing looks to be in Wisconsin, indicating that those areas would have better tornado potential. However, considering that the instability is located farther south, they do not exactly match up. We will have to see what evolves with this situation.

Finally, the precipitation forecast for 7:00 PM CDT indicates that a mesoscale convective system (MCS) of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across southern Wisconsin. Some single celled storms could evolve to the south of this MCS, but that remains to be seen.

More to come.
Andrew

May 2012 Outlook Will Be Released at 12:00 PM CDT


Friday, April 27, 2012

Happy 2 Year Anniversary!

Yesterday was The Weather Centre's 2nd anniversary, but today was what I consider the real anniversary.
I want to thank everyone who has come here and viewed or commented anything here. It really means a lot. I hope this is 2 of many years of weather to come.

Thanks again,
Andrew.

Reminder: The May 2012 Outlook comes out tomorrow!

NAM Projecting Severe Weather Threat to Continue into Tomorrow

This is a composite reflectivity forecast for roughly 7:00 AM CDT tomorrow morning. As you can see, a broad area of strong storms are expected in the north Illinois/south Wisconsin region.
Make note that composite reflectivity is theoretically the maximum power a storm has. That said, this does not appear likely to verify, but some strong storms are still possible in the areas mentioned before.

On a side note, as the cold weather makes a very unwelcome return, it just so happens that I may be coming down with a little something. A nuisance at best at this point, but this is just a heads up if posting becomes scarce in the next few days (I don't expect it to).

Andrew

Tornado Watch #194

Tornado Watch #194 has been declared for eastern Kansas until 9:00 PM CDT this evening.

Discussion
Compact yet intense low pressure area is currently in place over western Kansas. Wind analysis indicates intense wind spinning in that area, leading to likely spinning in the atmosphere. 700mb and 300mb maps also indicate the presence of a storm system in the area.
Current radar is indicating a strong storm cluster in north central Kansas, as well as a couple 'popcorn' cells along the western edge of the tornado watch box. These will likely be the supercells that will have to be watched.
Modest instability is in place. With the close proximity of the frontal boundary to the watch box, a tight temperature gradient combined with a fairly intense wind field are making for fair tornado conditions.

Moderate Risk Issued for Today, April 27


Tornado Threat
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk of severe weather for eastern Kansas into western Missouri for this afternoon due to an increased tornado risk.

Surface analysis charts indicate that winds are flowing steadily into western Kansas, indicating the presence of a disturbance in the area. 500mb analysis confirms the presence of a small yet intense low pressure system currently sitting over western Kansas.

The radar below is real-time. Blue boxes are severe t-storm warnings, and red boxes are tornado warnings. Stay safe everyone.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Flying Snowflakes Possible in North Plains into Northeast


Here is my forecast for the potential for some flying flakes and even a little accumulation going into the weekend. Keep in mind that this has been based off the latest model trends and does not account for a single forecast, rather multiple forecasts.

Light Blue: I am expecting the potential for some flying snowflakes to make an appearance in this area. The system will be a clipper system, so some cold temperatures are possible during and slightly after the system comes through. Little to no accumulation is expected. Slick roads are possible, if a cold rain makes an appearance as well.

Darker Blue: I am considering this area the 'target zone' of this clipper. Maximum amounts should end up to 2 inches, as this snow will be heavy, thus using up more water and moisture than would be used in January or December.

Sure-Fire El Nino Next Winter? Not So Fast.

Many climate models are predicting an El Nino following the double dip La Nina this year and last year. While a neutral to weak El Nino (possibly moderate) is likely, the forecasts for a super El Nino will most likely not verify, and here's why.


Here is the past analysis for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO. It is recognized by either a warm or cold temperature anomaly in the northern Pacific. Likewise, there are warm and cold phases, respectively. Right now, based on the above image, we are, and have been, in a cold phase. This means an increased likelihood for La Ninas. However, as observed in 2009, that is not always the case, hence the 'increased likelihood' part.

This is the PDO forecast out to 12 months off the ESRL's LIM long range model. As you can see above, we are projected to remain in a deep negative phase from now until at least March 2013. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Long range forecasts can be ticking time bombs of failure, or fairly spot on. There is barely, if any, room for forecast success 12 months out.
I ran over some verification scores for 3, 6, 9, and 12 month forecasts off this LIM model. I got 81%, 67%, 55%, and 41% verification for those respective forecasting periods. Now, don't get me wrong here- 44% is a very high verification rate for a full year out. However, it does not ensure confidence.

All I am saying here is that those going for a super El Nino for the upcoming winter (I haven't heard any of those forecasts, but I'm bound to run across a couple sooner or later) should take a look at how strong the negative PDO will be and how it could very well tamper the possible El Nino down to a neutral or weak Nino year.

Andrew

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

South Wisconsin May Get Crushed with Late Season Snow

Sorry everyone, the automatic publisher didn't work! Sorry!
The latest GFS is showing over a foot of snow for southern Wisconsin and far eastern Iowa. This comes as a fast moving storm system appears to absorb additional moisture to provoke additional snow amounts.

Before I go any further: This image may be produced with 10:1 ratios, which would be higher than what is being shown here. The keyword is 'MAY', because a comparison to other 10:1 ratio images yielded different results. That said, I am treating this image as a 10:1 ratio image in order to not get everyone's hopes up too high.

Anyhow, I would expect a realistic scenario to be 1-4 inches in southern Wisconsin, with another 2-4 in Pennsylvania. I really don't know with the difference in images using the exact same data, which should yield the same results.

Possible Weekend Snow Update at 4:00 PM CDT

Southwestern Low May Ignite Severe Weather in Plains

The ECMWF is projecting that a large low pressure system will swing into the Southwest and likely ignite some showers and storms if it should progress eastward into the Plains.
There isn't too much I can say about this storm system, but the jet stream appears to be latched onto the system, which would increase tornadic shearing and the overall intensity of the system.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Snow Event Potential This Weekend

A storm system is expected to bring a snow event to the Lower Great Lakes and lower part of the New England region. This image portrays 500mb relative vorticity values. For a refresher, positive vorticity values indicate low pressure systems. So, as you can see, there is an area of higher vorticity values in lower Iowa, which is the system we are watching for possible snow.
The system should quickly shift eastward and weaken in the process. Despite this, expect snow values to quickly increase in the North Ohio and New England regions, as the Atlantic Ocean enhances the moisture content of the system.

Here is a snow map valid for April 29 off the 12z GFS model. It has been showing snow in the area for a while. As you can see, a good 6 inches of snow is being forecasted in Pennsylvania off this system, with 2-4 inches in north Ohio and around the 6 inch swath.
Just for kicks, let's imagine that this snow is going to have a 10:1 ratio (10 inches of snow = 1 inch of liquid). Now, 10:1 ratios are uncommon in early and late season snowfalls, so take a look below.

This is a 5 day accumulation map.

Andrew

Monday, April 23, 2012

Severe Weather Possible Thursday

I am monitoring the potential for some hazardous or potentially severe weather in the Plains come Thursday. Looking at the image above, there is a vorticity maximum in northeastern New Mexico, suggesting the presence of a low pressure system. It looks like it will be negatively tilted, with the highest vorticity values pointing towards the southeast. This negative tilt will add to much needed instability if storms want to develop.
A lack of jet stream support and stronger vorticity values is leading me to assume that this will not be a big event. I am not seeing sufficient jet stream winds to indicate that this storm will be strong enough to cause a more large-scale event, and that this may be a slightly more localized event.

Instability values will be pretty impressive with CAPE values exceeding 3000 j/kg in Kansas and Missouri, as well as parts of Oklahoma. Again, this storm system is not looking too strong, so maximum instability is going to be around what is shown here. Considering the system is in northeastern New Mexico, the system should move in a general east-northeast direction, giving the Oklahoma/Kansas areas the first shots at severe weather potential.

Here is the reason storms may struggle to form. A huge storm-suppressing cap of warm air will be over the darkest shades of blue, meaning that a lot of instability will be needed to break this. As of now, it looks like a good 3000 j/kg of CAPE will be necessary to break the cap and then produce severe storms. This is about the maximum instability being offered by the so-so storm system.

When it comes down to it, the instability will probably cancel out the cap and ignite some storms. The question is, will these storms be severe, and could they be tornadic? I would not go as far as to forecast that, but using these indications, I would say that some severe storms are possible, but lack of major shearing is discouraging for tornado potential.

Andrew

Sunday, April 22, 2012

Nor'easter Real-Time Page is Online

I set up a real-time page loaded with images concerning the upcoming Nor'easter.

Live Page link

Nor'easter Beginning to Take Shape

As of this morning, the two pieces of energy needed for the Nor'easter are making their rendezvous point around the offshore areas of Georgia and South Carolina. We have an energized clipper system currently in place over southern Illinois, and the second piece of energy containing much of the moisture centered to the west of Florida. The systems will continue to be forced east as a massive ridge can be seen over the Western US, distinguished by the large arching lines.

As I mentioned earlier, much of the moisture and initial energy will be coming from the second system near Florida. This is another infrared view, showing just how little moisture and energy the clipper has to work with (scattered colors over WI/IL) at this time.

Again- they are on their way and will be phasing likely beginning today.

Andrew

Saturday, April 21, 2012

Video Briefing Concerning the Northeast Storm System

video

30 Inches of Snow Possible in New York with Late April Snowstorm

A strong storm system is forecast to put down up to 30 inches of snow in western New York in the next few days. The image above portrays the storm system superimposed with 900mb wind speeds. These can show just how strong the storm system is. Below is the SREF snowfall forecast for Jamestown Airport, New York.

While many members are indicating snow to be somewhere in the 10-20 inch range, a few select members are choosing to go 20-30 inches. However, with every high end there is a low end, and this low end totals 1-5 inches as a storm total.
I am thinking that, with the ratios of snow being so low, and the storm system being so strong, that this will likely even out to a good 10-17 inch total for the hardest hit areas.

Andrew

Strong Storm System to Deliver Rain, Snow to Northeast

A strong storm system is currently in the Gulf of Mexico making its way east, where showers and storms can be expected across the Northeast, but also some intense snow. Cities like Buffalo, NY could get in on more than a foot of heavy, wet snow.
Currently, the vort max (darkest red) is just east of Texas, which is where we will place the center of the storm. There is a vort lobe (elongated region of low pressures) running northeast into the west Ohio Valley areas, which is bringing down morning temperatures in those areas.

The storm system is expected to make its way into the East Coast and 'bomb out' into a very strong storm system. This 'bombing out' indicates that the Atlantic Ocean is providing abundant moisture to give to the storm system, in turn strengthening it. The storm system will hug the East Coast before shifting inland and likely into Canada. Bitter cold temperatures may follow in the wake of this storm system.

This is the probability for 8 inches of snow 2 days from today. As you can see, the highest potential is centered over far west New York, where I am expecting likely amounts at 8 inches, with isolated totals at a foot or potentially higher. This snow will be heavy. There's no getting around it. I advise anyone living in the area marked off above to prepare for downed trees and power lines, as leaves are returning to the trees, which will hold snow and thus weigh the tree down more than it would in winter.


Then there's the rain. People along the coast itself may receive well over 3 inches of rain in the next 5 days if this graphic verifies. Because the system will be so strong and because it will shift inland, expect Maine, Vermont, and states in that region to get the most precipitation out of this system. Flooding is definitely a concern, but this will help to bust the ongoing drought currently in the Northeast.

Friday, April 20, 2012

April 20, 2012

Haven't posted today, and i am sorry about that.
I was running over a few tests and studying some material I can hopefully bring in here as the hurricane season begins to open its doors.

Andrew

Thursday, April 19, 2012

May Outlook Release Date

The May forecast outlook will be issued Thursday, April 26, which will be the 2 year anniversary of The Weather Centre. Hard to believe it's been 2 years already.

-Andrew

Don't Count Off ECMWF Megastorm for Northeast Just Yet

The ECMWF has been calling for a strong storm system to bash the East Coast, potentially delivering snowfall in excess of 1 foot in much of the Northeast. Many have been throwing this out the window as the GFS takes a seemingly more sensible solution and goes out to sea. Let's review some things about the ECMWF and GFS' bad blood.

•Historically, the ECMWF is the 'better' model.
•The ECMWF correctly predicted the 2011 October snowstorm.
•The ECMWF was the 1st model to catch onto the idea of what become the 2011 Groundhog Day Blizzard (Source).
•The GFS is run 4 times a day, while the ECMWF is run twice.
•The ECMWF is based overseas in Europe.

For those wondering how I determined the ECMWF is historically the 'better' model, take a look below.
This is a combination of the latest GFS and ECMWF verification scores for the past many many runs over the Northern Hemisphere (20 N - 80 N). As you can see, the ECMWF has much better verification scores over the past several days, while the GFS lags behind with at least 4 runs highlighted in red, indicating unusually low verification scores.

Now, whether this storm happens remains to be seen. But I personally find it awfully convincing with the ECMWF/ECMWF Ensembles lined up for a strong storm system for the Northeast against the less-dominant GFS.

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Late Season Snow for Northeast Possible Next Week

http://clients.customweather.com/plot_images/client_sites/WEATHERBELL
/GFS/final_WB013/WB013_500_GPM_VOR_WIND_HOUR_K_50.png
The latest GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a late season snowfall for the Northeast next week, as temperatures look to plunge below freezing and a massive storm system strengthens in the presence of the Atlantic Ocean. In this discussion, we will review things pointing towards the snowfall as well as caveats to the potential snowfall.

A caveat of this potential snowfall includes a crashing PNA index. The Pacific North American pattern, commonly referred to as the PNA, looks to be moving towards a negative phase around the time of the storm system. When the PNA is in a negative phase, a ridge is pressed into the Southeast and diverts storms away from the Northeast. Snowfall producing storms are favored in positive PNA situations. If this PNA forecast were to verify (which I am not completely sold on yet), the system would likely be forced away.

Something I would watch for is the NAO to help this storm. Seeing as it is being forecast into a negative phase, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) would position variables to become conductive for a snowfall in the Northeast. I advise you not to totally take the NAO and run, because if you see the correlation with observations in the 14 day forecast on the bottom, there is only a 12% verification score in the past 4 months or so. Notice the glitch just before January 1. This likely battered down the score, so I would place the verification around 30%- still not very good.

Other Positives
•ECMWF/GFS model agreement is reassuring.
•NAO appears favorable for some light snow.

Other Caveats
•PNA must be considered.
•System remains 6-7 days out.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Strong Storm System May Ignite Active Weather Next Week

The image shown above is the 500mb height forecasts for 'Day 7', roughly a week out. At the 500mb level, one can detect low pressure systems when the lines are depressed into an upside-down arch. Ridges of high pressure are indicated in right side up arch formations.
In this forecast, made by the NCEP Superensemble, we see a very strong storm system swinging south which will likely shift into the Southeast. The ridge in place over the Central US will be shifted east or north with the invasion of this storm system.
I am worried about this right off the bat, considering that this strong a storm system will most likely latch onto the jet stream and stress it to increase wind speeds. Humid and warm air will boost instability in a scenario seen all too much this spring.
We have yet to see if this will verify, but the ensembles are very interested.

Andrew

Relatively Quiet Week in Store

The next 8-10 days are looking to be relatively quiet in terms of severe weather for the nation, as a strong vortex in the Gulf of Alaska looks to weaken and may also weaken storms that pass through the Southwest. That's where the 'quiet' part ends and the 'relatively' begins.
As you can see, there is a deep depression off the coast of California. This signifies the presence of low pressure systems in the area. Storms that form in that region typically shift east into the Southwest, where those storms have traditionally been known to then move east into the South Plains and fire up potentially strong storms. Notice the arch in the Southern Plains. This indicates the presence of a ridge of high pressure, which carries warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico within the region. Should storm systems move into the Southern Plains, the ridge would move east or north, and essentially form a frontal boundary which would bring north warm and humid air into the Southern Plains. A dry line would already be in place over west Texas. Saying that the storm system progresses east, and the cold front follows, severe weather may very well initiate.
But- let's not get ahead of ourselves. Gazing over the anomaly correlation (a verification tool) gives North America a verification score of roughly 75% over the past 2 months, give or take a week. Now- 75% may seem low. But, remember that the atmosphere is potentially the most complex mechanism known to man, maybe second to the universe itself. Having to keep track, and then forecast, an entire continent is an extremely hard task. Now, 75% seems pretty impressive. Of course, models can do better, but 75% is a fair score.

Side notes
•Expect a May outlook being formed over the weekend and likely up for release the following weekend.
•The 'Place to Be' is once again up and running. It gives the best weather place to be in the nation for the day.
•My apologies for the absence of forecast discussions. I am working to get them up and going again.

Andrew

April 17, 2012: Place to Be: Laredo, Texas

Today's Place to Be is Laredo, Texas.

High: 87
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Wind: NE at 11 MPH.


Monday, April 16, 2012

Notice

Hey everyone, I'm sorry that I haven't been able to put anything out today as I'm still pretty tired from being up late Saturday.
Today was not wasted, however-
I am planning a May outlook and added 4 new weather models. More to come.

Sunday, April 15, 2012

Tornado Watch #180

A tornado watch has been issued for east Missouri and southwest Illinois until Midnight CDT.

As of now, several individual strong thunderstorms are in the watch box. Because of the proximity of a strong lower level jet stream and cold front supporting a somewhat linear formation, these storm cells do have tornado potential. If they go linear into a squall line, however, then this potential drops.