Monday, January 24, 2011

Rest Of The 2010-2011 Winter Forecast


Looks like we're close to the half-way point in winter, and The Weather Centre is here to bring you the rest of winter forecast.

The CPC and Accuweather have given a good look at what can be expected for the rest of winter. Combined with typical La Nina conditions, this should be a fairly accurate forecast.
Below is The Weather Centre's forecast for the rest of winter.
Cold and snowy conditions should remain for the rest of this winter across the Great Lakes, Midwest. I stretched it a bit south due to the risk of farther stretching storms as we have seen this winter.
I did keep the warm, dry section in place.
For the Southeast, occasional cooler periods can be expected due to the proximity to the Midwest and Great Lakes.
Arctic outbreaks may become more frequent as the winter lags on, also bringing that cooler period risk to justice.
Of concern is in the Northeast, where I did place the risk for more winter storms in the event of more big, strong winter storms.
Wet and Snowy conditions are expected in the Northwest as more storms begin to come back to the area.
The Southwest should remain dry for the rest of this winter.
In a winter of craziness, a normal period may come to settle in the Rockies and west Plains.

Don't forget to vote on the poll on the left sidebar and watch for the Spring forecast coming in early to mid February.

NORTHEAST STORM DISCUSSION

January 24, 2011 Evening
Discussion...
12Z MODEL RUN DID NOT CLEAR UP MUCH CONFUSION.
ONCE AGAIN, GFS MODEL IS THE CLOSEST TO THE COAST. THE NAM BEGAN TO AGREE BUT NOW RELAYS THE STORM WILL FOLLOW THE NOGAPS MODEL AND STAY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST.
AT THIS TIME, THE SNOWMAP AND ICEMAP ON THE EAST COAST STORM PAGE HAVE BEEN BASED ON THE GFS MODEL.
ADDING TO AN ALREADY DIFFICULT SITUATION, THE GEM AND UKMET MODELS INSTEAD RUN THE STORM NORTH THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
CURRENT THINKING... I AM TEMPTED TO PULL THE SNOWMAP AND ICEMAP OUT AND REVISE IT.
THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL DOES GO WITH THE GFS, SO WILL KEEP THE ICEMAP, SNOWMAP IN PLACE.
NO SURE-FIRE SITUATION IS FOR SURE, BUT...AT THIS TIME, AM LEANING FOR THE GFS TRACK AS THE NCEP ENSEMBLE AND SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE.

East Coast Storm Page

A page has just been created for the East Coast Storm this week.
It contains the new IceCAST and SnowCAST.

NORTHEAST WINTER STORM DISCUSSION

IN THE 00Z MODEL RUN, THE GFS MODEL WAS THE CLOSEST TO SHORE WITH THE STORM AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE NAM AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST THAN THE GFS.
THE BIG PLAYER, THE ECMWF MODEL, HUGS THE COAST VERY TIGHTLY, COMING WITH THE GFS MODEL.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEING THE TWO BIGGEST MODELS, IT'S SAFE TO SAY THAT THE STORM SHOULD OCCUR.
IN THE 06Z RUN, WHICH IS NEWEST, THE NAM GIVES IN AND IS BUDDY-BUDDY WITH THE GFS, BOTH CLOSE TO SHORE. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE ALSO TAKEN THAT SOLUTION, YET THE NCEP ENSEMBLE REMAINS MIXED.
AT THIS TIME, I DO BELIEVE IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT THE NORTHEAST STORM IS LIKELY AT THIS TIME.