Mesoscale Discussion #1730 (Outlook Upgrade, Severe T-Storm Watch)

AREAS FROM NERN OH ACROSS WRN NY AND NY SRN TIER TO THE MOHAWK
   VALLEY...AS WELL AS NWRN PA...WILL BE INCLUDED IN A SLGT RISK AREA
   WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEXT SPC DAY 1 OTLK BY 1630 UTC/1230 EDT.
   FURTHERMORE...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOME OF THIS AREA BEFORE
   NOON EDT.
   
   VSBL SATL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AXIS OF RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES FROM OH
   ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY. EXPECT THAT SURFACE HEATING ACROSS
   THIS CORRIDOR...ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WILL SUPPORT THE
   CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE TSTMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. COINCIDENT
   WITH THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WITHIN THE VERY MOIST AND WARMING
   AIRMASS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONG AS
   40-50KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SPREADS EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
   THIS WILL PROMOTE LONGER-LIVED/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS LIKELY TAKING THE
   FORM OF LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AS
   WELL AS SOME HAIL.
   
   IF LATEST TRENDS WITH THE BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS NOW
   MOVING INTO WRN NY CONTINUE...A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL ALSO BE
   COORDINATED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.