MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1639 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN ND...NW MN CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 171524Z - 171630Z GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG TO EXTREME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY... AND MODEST TO STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...PROBABILITIES FOR THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE INCREASING...EITHER FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY OR NEW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IN THE 1630Z OUTLOOK UPDATE.
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