Tuesday, June 21, 2011

June 21- Evening Storm Update (5:28 pm CDT)

This is a storm update for the storms currently occurring in South Illinois.

Up in North Illinois, there is a very unstable atmosphere as the warm front has lifted to the north of the area. As a strong low pressure pushes eastward, storms moving north out ahead of the cold front may go linear into a squall line should the cold front push farther and quicker than the mesoscale convective system (MCS) currently in South Illinois.

These storms in Illinois aren't too strong in terms of large hail, but are likely putting down hail in a smaller size at this time. As the storms move northward and probably in a slightly eastward direction as well, the storms will strengthen in the warm and humid atmosphere sector created by the warm front pulled north.
There is potential for these storms to also go into Indiana, which seems to be the more likely solution. The low is actually progged to pull northeastward. As this motion happens, the cold front may retract in an upward fashion, bending towards North Illinois. Should this happen, the storms will be more inclined to push more easterly into Indiana, and I believe this is what solution I may go with as we move on into the night.

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