Friday, May 13, 2011

May 13: Tonight's Forecast

DISCUSSION
Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop ahead of a cold front in the Southern US. Severe weather threats of hail and locally damaging winds are confined to the Ohio/Tennessee Valley and down into Mississippi/Alabama.
Weaker shear but strong instability out east in the Appalachians will be productive of a less organized but still potential severe threat. However, with weak high pressures likely pushing east ahead of the cold front, I would not be surprised to see even weaker shearing and somewhat higher instabilities.
In Florida, sea breezes will likely spout scattered thunderstorms, some of which could reach severe limits. A widespread outbreak is not expected.

As the storms ahead of the cold front push east, I am expecting a potential for thunderstorm outflow (cool wind from thunderstorms) combined with scattered pockets of sea breezes to initiate some isolated thunderstorms. I would not expect them to be severe, but local damaging wind gusts and small hail are not off the table.
There are currently some storms in New York, but those are expected to weaken.

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