Friday, March 25, 2011

March 25 Severe Weather Outlook Today


Low pressure across the Arkansas area will provide the stage for a severe weather event.
This severe weather event is not projected to be significantly severe. Looking at the top image from the NOAA, there is only a small area of severe weather forecast. Looking at the RAP Weather image, the low pressure will be aligned in Arkansas with that area of rain intensifying.
The trough may be the ignition for the storms. However, there is also the possibility the cold front will catch up to the warm front and create severe weather. We will just have to wait and see.
Below is the overall SPC risk area for today.
Judging by that image it appears the low itself may be the trigger for the severe weather. Below are the risks of tornado, high winds and hail in order.
It would appear that, whatever storms develop, they would have a good lifting mechanism that would produce hail as water droplets must be thrown up into the air far enough that they freeze into hail.
The tornado risk is somewhat elevated, potentially due to that lift. The wind risk is not abnormal but may also be enhanced by the lift. It seems to all come down to the lift.

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