Monday, February 28, 2011
Today is the end of meteorological winter.After last night's storm, will be looking forward to next storm.
At this time, models in no agreement. Below is Model Analyses.
ECMWF- Similar set-up to last night's wintry storm. However, sharp cold outbreak behind system. Backside Precip will be snow. Track through North Illinois, weak.
NOGAPS- Tracks storm through Central IL. Rain/Snow line south, system stronger than ECMWF solution.
GEM- First system drops from Canada to deliver light rain. Next system immediately after tracks through North IL, stronger than ECMWF. System that dropped form Canada then goes farther south, is energized by Gulf of Mexico, and travels northeast.
GFS- Practically same storm as last night. Rain/Snow line in same area.
Conclusion: No agreement whatsoever. However, general idea is stronger than ECMWF. will prefer to go with NOGAPS/ECMWF solution.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
This is a special Forecast Discussion about developing severe weather in the Plains into the Midwest.
Right now, Strong low pressure in West Oklahoma has long occluded/warm front extending into the Ohio Valley. Cold front extending near New Mexico pulling dry air eastward.
Dry line in Texas provides starting point for severe storms, as well as along warm front and cold front. This is a very dynamic situation, and we have drawn up a map of current analysis.
Will keep careful watch on progression of dry line, and especially occluded/warm front, where current storms are occurring.
A tornado watch has been issued until 9pm CDT for the following areas:
-North Central Oklahoma
As of 3:41pm CDT, the potential for storms has increased enough so a tornado watch has been issued. Strong storms can be expected to form in this area.
Make preparations immediately to secure outdoor objects and make a tornado shelter.
Below in order, are reports of Large Hail, High Winds, and Tornadoes for the year 2001.
Below we see the main area for large hail is definitely Tornado Alley.
Below we can see the main area for damaging winds was in the East US.
Below, we can see the main area for tornadoes was Tornado Alley into the Upper Midwest.
In order: Reports of Large Hail, High Winds, and Tornadoes for the year 2000.
Below, the main area for large hail was Tornado Alley back into the Midwest.
Below, the area for high winds was the entire East US.
Below, the main area for tornadoes was in Tornado Alley.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued until 9pm CDT for portions of EAST KANSAS and portions of NORTH MISSOURI.
At 1:40pm CDT... Strong to severe thunderstorms were developing in East Kansas moving Northeast. These storms are single celled, making a potential for tornadic activity.
Hail and high winds can be expected from these storms.
There is a large severe threat today. The explanations are below.As we can see below, on this tornado graph, there is an enhanced risk of tornadoes occurring in the South Illinois, Southeast Missouri, West Kentucky, West Tennessee and much of Arkansas. If you are in those areas, work now to prepare for potentially strong tornadoes.
Below, on the potential for hail, we see a 30% area over much of the areas mentioned above. If you are in the 30% risk area, work now to prepare for potentially large hailstones.
Below is the potential for high winds. In the same areas as above, there is a 45% area for the probability of high winds. If you are in the 30% area, work now to prepare for high winds. If you are in the 45% area, work now to prepare for extremely high winds.
There is a significant severe threat today. The images from top to bottom are the overall threat, tornado, hail and wind.
People in the MODERATE areas should work now to prepare for extreme thunderstorms.
People in the SLIGHT areas should work now to secure outdoor objects.
Models yesterday night had begun to replace tomorrow's storm with snow instead of rain in portions of the Midwest.
This Forecast Discussion also includes the morning model analyses.
ECMWF- The ECMWF model apparently did not change with the 0z run.
NOGAPS- The NOGAPS model has a two low solution. It holds back the rain/snow line to WI/IL border.
GEM- GEM is continuing to be very consistent, but is showing signs of aligning with the NOGAPS solution.
GFS- The GFS takes a one low solution potentially weaker, with the rain/snow line on WI/IL border.
WRF- The WRF is exactly aligned with the GFS solution.
SIHM In-house Model- NOGAPS/ECMWF blend.
Will watch system as it happens.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
ECMWF/GFS Ensembles as well as actual ECMWF/GFS models have come in line with the Weather Centre's SIHM model preference to hold the push of warm air and rain/snow line to WI/IL border.
GEM continues to be a consistent outlier, but the SIHM does not agree with that solution.
Will prefer Central IL track and keep rain/snow line on WI/IL border.
This is the 2011 Canadian Spring Forecast.
Edited February 26.
This spring will be cooler in many regions as La Nina continues throughout the region, but others will experience warmer than normal conditions. I have outlined the specific areas below.
I do believe that, as spring wears on, people in Southern Canada will experience warmer than normal conditions, as well as infrequent heat waves, pushing temperatures as high as the low 70's in places.
There is forecast concern of the area by Alaska, where temperatures may actually be more warm than cooler, but I do predict that at least some of the area outlined in cooler conditions will get overall cooler conditions.
Precipitation-Wise, I believe storms will continue to affect the area, pushing the precipitation above normal in many areas.
However, the southern Canada areas mentioned in the heavy snowfall for this winter was due to a pattern in the US. That pattern is predicted to break down. Due to that, the precipitation outlook may look odd to people in Southern Canada. See the image below.
This is an image of the 0z GEM Canadian model run. That blue line is the Rain/Snow live. When there is a certain area, from the rain/snow line to Chicago in this case, wintry precipitation is likely to be mixed with rain. This could create hazardous conditions and flooding, and this situation will have to be monitored.
0z ECMWF- The ECMWF appears to take a track through South IL, but this is unconfirmed.
0z NOGAPS- The NOGAPS has taken the low farther south into South IL.
6z GFS- Takes 2-low solution; main low goes east.
0z GEM- The GEM is still all alone, taking a two low solution, darting north into Michigan.
6z WRF- The WRF takes the low through south IL.
Model Discussion: This massive warm air push is becoming more clear as the SIHM model begins to grasp it. However, the SIHM does not push the warm air up as far, and takes the low in Central Illinois.
Friday, February 25, 2011
5:17pm The Weather CentreMain concern with forecast is strong low pressure to go through US Saturday into Monday.
Models still not getting a good feel for this storm. However, the SIHM in-house model believes a southern track is more likely, given consistency and model quantity.
Extra Forecast Discussions for model differences likely.
ECMWF- Takes old GFS solution with two lows. Main low keeps same track as 0z GFS.
GFS- One low with a north track.
NOGAPS- Takes ECMWF solution with main low farther south, increasing snow potential for South Great Lakes.
GEM- Takes North solution through South Great Lakes.
WRF- ECMWF solution, main low a bit more north than NOGAPS model.
GEFS (6z-12z comparison)- 12z run had low more north, weaker.
UKMET- Appears to take a one-low solution, south track.
JMA- Appears to have a south track.
SOUTH TRACK: ECMWF, NOGAPS, WRF, UKMET, JMA
NORTH TRACK: GFS, GEM
SIHM Discussion- The In-House computer model says that the low will take more of an ECMWF solution, riding on consistency. However, the SIHM does flirt with the GFS solution in runs as well. Will monitor.
Overall discussion- Will take ECMWF track, but curious to see how the supposed push of warm air above the low will play out. SIHM doesn't pull the warm air up as far, more of a NOGAPS solution with the rain/snow line on Wisconsin/IL border.
Edit: GFS has not had consistency, even though all models took a two-low solution as GFS did. Very odd.
This analyses is for the Feb. 28-March 1st storm.
ECMWF- Faster. SOUTHERN TRACK.
NOGAPS- Little change. SOUTHERN TRACK.
GEM- Now goes NE into North IL. NORTHERN TRACK
GFS- Develops two low pressures. One goes north, the other goes south track. UNDEFINED TRACK.
WRF- NORTH TRACK
Thursday, February 24, 2011
A potential storm that would work across the Midwest may have strength rivaling that of the 2011 Blizzard.
Below, we define what tracks are where, and what models are in them.
South Track: Goes through Central Illinois, South Illinois, and areas like.
North Track: Goes through North Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, moving NNE, and areas like.
Models with a South Track: ECMWF, NOGAPS, GEM, DGEX
Models with a North Track: GFS,
Models with other tracks: -
Consensus: The In-House Weather Centre model is giving early indications that this storm may keep more of a northern track. However, the model is very uneasy with this solution and is only beginning to grasp this storm. Stay tuned.
Storm did move slightly north as predicted by The Weather Centre.
At this time, current thinking is that the amounts will stand. Short range models are having some troubles with track, so The Weather Centre believes fluctuations of the track are possible.
Overall, track should stay the same.
Due to timing Snow Maps will not be able to be issued.
However, we do have heaviest snow areas.
-From the SOUTH TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN EAST AND WEST will be 6''+ of snow.
-Areas on the WEST SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL RECEIVE UP TO 6''.
-The OHIO VALLEY WILL RECEIVE UP TO 15'' IN THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. LOWER AMOUNTS SOUTH.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
18z GEFS has shifted slightly more north and is stronger.
The GEFS is what makes up the GFS. They are many members that come together to form the GFS model.
At this time, reports are in that some members were far north and much stronger.
That in mind, have begun to become optimistic about this storm for a hit on the Great Lakes.
There is quite a potential for a severe weather outbreak coming through the South with this next storm system. Below is an SPC graphic.
We see a Slight Risk area for severe storms in the South. Also, judging by the 30% severe area, I am expecting an area of the slight risk to turn into a Moderate Risk area tomorrow. Below is Accuweather's take on the storm situation.
Also below is Weather.com's graphic.
A more in-depth analysis will be issued tomorrow
Focus has turned to the potential winter storm that may impact the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
GFS model was deemed an outlier by weather forecasters this morning, but many/all models have been wading south to the GFS, mystifying many observers of model data.
A reputed meteorologist reported that, including the Blizzard of 2011, storms in a set-up like this one may begin forecasting too far south. This meteorologist seemed to be indicating a north turn around by the models is still possible. The storm remains a couple days away.
At this time, The Weather Centre sees this storm as incredibly complex. Will not issue maps until tomorrow for most accuracy; see no point in making obsolete maps.
The Weather Centre believes the models are behaving strangely by all following one model deemed an outlier. Even the ECMWF, labeled consistent in this storm, shifted south.
Will continue monitoring this situation.
With that storm comes severe weather concern.
At this time, probability is high that at least a moderate outbreak of severe weather will occur.
Any developments will be monitored.
Monday, February 21, 2011
This is a short analysis because we only will focus on one model. The latest NAM has just come out, and we will focus on this. Below is hour 84 simulated radar.
Note the potential squall line in the Ohio Valley. Also, the big bulk of precipitation in the Great Lakes, Midwest. To sort out whether the precipitation is snow or rain, see below.
The farthest south BLUE line is the rain/snow line. Precipitation will be heavy closest to the line in this storm.
This has been the first of potentially many analyses on this storm.
2 potential storms have the risk of bringing over a foot to many Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas. This is a map of hours 84-192 accumulated snowfall.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Even though continuous promises to deliver a spring forecast for Canada and Europe that didn't happen,
I assure you that you will not be disappointed with the forecast when it comes out.
With all new data and excellent information, this forecast will be the best one.
The time spent waiting will be worth it.
Remember: the date of release is March 1st.
Thanks to you, the search 'The Weather Centre' has the following rankings in search engines as of February 20, 2011:
-Google: 1st spot
-Bing: 3rd spot
-Yahoo: 3rd spot
-Ask.com: 13th spot
(NOTE: Bing and Yahoo give the same results.)
As of February 27, 2011:
-Google: 1st spot (No change)
-Bing: 2nd spot (+1 spot)
-Yahoo: 2nd spot (+1 spot)
-Ask.com: 14th spot (-1 spot)
There is a potential for severe weather on February 25th, 2011.
The SPC highlights the potential for active weather throughout this period.
...DISCUSSION... AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON THU/D5. ON WED/D4...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAJA CA/SRN CA COAST WED MORNING. WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NWD OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ERN STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE. BY THU MORNING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS NWRN TX OR CNTRL OK WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 60F UP TO THE LOW CENTER....AND UP TO A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EWD ACROSS NRN OK/AR OR PERHAPS SRN MO. A SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS BY 00Z. UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND A PLUME OF STEEP DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE SITUATION. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH MAY NOT BE WELL HANDLED THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...THE CURRENT MODEL DEPICTION WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT...RATHER THAN A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE. IN THIS SCENARIO...A SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY FRI/D6...A SEVERE THREAT OF SOME FORM MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN SEABOARD...BUT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND PREDICTABILITY BECOME TOO LOW FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE AREAS."
Below is The Weather Centre's depiction of what could happen in this situation of a
severe weather outbreak.
Low pressure moving east at this time. Warm front extended east of low pressure is rain/snow line. High freezing rain rates are possible as main low pressure moves east.
With freezing rain rates this high, ice glazing over surfaces appears possible/likely in the area outlined.
Further Analysis: Possible
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Recent forecasts have been predicting a changeover in portions of the Great Lakes from Frzg Rain to Rain, but a run of the SREF somewhat objects to this.
Below is the SREF take on the chance for freezing rain turning into rain.
In the image around one day from now, we see a somewhat elevated risk of freezing rain turning into rain. The most risk centered around the Wisconsin/Illinois border.
3 hours later, the probability of freezing rain into rain has gone down and is much less disorganized. That leads to thinking that changeover may not be as predominant as thought.
Another 3 hours further, the risk for changeover continues but is more disorganized and now practically nonexistent.
These images are leading me to believe that the GFS model is incorrect. The SREF handled the Blizzard of 2011 well, as well as the ECMWF.
But the SREF has handled all storms in short-range quite well, so there is much reasoning behind new thinking.
Current thinking by The Weather Centre is the following:
-CHANGEOVER TO RAIN WILL NOT BE AS DOMINANT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
-WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE MORE COMMON.
This is an evaluation of mean snowfall accumulated over 12 hours. The model is the SREF.
Below is where we'll start off, with the SREF image of about 30 hours out from now.
We see heavy snowfall totals centered around the Dakota areas, with upwards of 15'' in 12 hours.
A blizzard is expected in the Dakotas.
We also see precipitation beginning to spread eastward into the Great Lakes and putting down widespread 4-6'' totals in 12 hours.
Below is the next 12 hours image from the SREF.
12 hours later, we see heavy snowfall being projected in the Upper Midwest, particularly Minnesota into Central Wisconsin, even back into New York. The Dakotas will still be in bands of heavier snowfall.
Here at the Weather Centre, we do project low pressure to move across the Midwest through North Illinois and the Ohio Valley. Icy conditions will be present across Chicago and areas around Illinois 1-80 westward through the Midwest. People north of the highlighted ice region will receive quite a snowfall, possibly over a foot. And areas south of the projected low pressure will get rain.
A major winter storm is forecast to hit the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes starting tonight.
This storm is still not being handled well by the computer models nor the SREF. The Weather Centre team will be working round the clock to provide as much info as possible.
Extreme ice accumulations will occur in the South Great Lakes west into the Plains. Areas may receive up to 1 inch of ice. People south of the warm front projected will receive rain.
There are 3 colors in the snow area. The light blue band is where people could receive over a foot.
Make sure you stay safe as this storm arrives.
Friday, February 18, 2011
This is the February 20-23 Winter Storm Analysis.
A winter storm is projected to occur throughout the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. There are many key differences in forecasts of what the exact track should be and what type of precipitation will occur in these areas.
So let's start out with where the storm currently is. Below, we have a current image of the energy over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of California.
That big swirl of energy and moisture over Alaska and the Pacific Ocean is our expected storm. I do expect all that moisture to move over into California, strengthen as it begins to move along east, then trek into the Midwest and Great Lakes.
While the Computer Models haven't been handling this storm too well, the GFS ensembles have an image below of the 72 hour precipitation as per the 0z model run.
We definitely see heavy areas of precipitation over the Plains back through the Midwest and Great Lakes. Below are a couple images of the latest run of the GFS model depicting this storm.
Below is the first image. We see the strong low pressure creating heavy precipitation over the Great Lakes, with moderate precipitation dominant over the Plains. The hole to the west-southwest of the low pressure is the dry slot. Keep an eye on that.
About 6 hours later, the low pressure has moved northward, dragging the dry slot eastward. The precipitation is now moderate in the Great Lakes, Plains and Ohio Valley. The blue line right above the low pressure is the rain/snow line. Anyone above the first blue line gets snow. Anyone below it gets rain, typically.
Six more hours later, the low pressure is moving east. Moderate precipitation has turned light across the Upper Plains, with moderate-heavy precipitation ending as well in the Upper Midwest. Attention then turns to the Ohio Valley, where heavy precipitation is dominant.
Snow is the last thing people want across the North after this warm-up. But, to get a feel for how much snow areas may get, below is current snow cover.
All that snow from the Blizzard of 2011 is gone over the Chicago area, with small snow cover in left from the storm that collapsed the Metrodome. Now, compare this current snow cover with the projected snow cover from the 12z run after this storm.
Here, we see a big change as large snowfall totals are evident in the Wisconsin, Minnesota and Upper Plains areas. This is expected to be a big storm.
The Weather Centre will not have SnowCASTs or IceCASTs available for the next couple of days until the models settle out.