All indications are that the AO index will dive negative. This spells a snowy time for the Great Lakes area and cold, smack on. However, we are focusing on a long range forecast.
A certain website is indicating that the Great Lakes area will not receive heavy snow. I highly doubt that. They indicate less Ohio Valley precip. Ohio Valley WILL get more precip. The Great Lakes WILL get more precip. However, this certain site is indicating that the ice storm risk is significantly increased.
I will consider the potential for temperature swings and jet stream shifts that will probably bring an ice storm or two.
A positive PNA and negative AO indexes will spell a very intense winter. So how is this year's PNA shaping up?
This year's PNA for the next 14 days looks like negative turning positive.
The next 14 day AO certainly will turn negative.
This likely means a possibly moderately snowy period over the next 2 weeks.
Long range? Hard to tell, but with many indications showing not just the Ohio valley in a snow threat this la nina year, I think the AO will be negative.
The PNA, when positive, means a stormy and cold time in the Midwest.
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