Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Europe Snowstorm 11/30 Update #1

So above we have the current analysis chart in Europe. That Low with a pressure of 994 off Europe in the ocean will be a big snow producer.
It will come on shore with quite a vengeance.


Europe, you are in for quite a snowstorm this week!

SWW Southeast

A Special Weather Warning has been issued for the Southeast US.
As seen above in the SPC loop, a squall line is moving quickly out to the east to take a crack at severe weather in the South.

People in the area with the red box are advised to watch for tornadoes.
Those areas will also experience hail, high winds and heavy rain.

People in the SLGT area should watch for isolated tornadoes, high winds and hail.

This will expire tomorrow in the evening.

Arctic Outbreak OV/GL/NE Update #2


The above picture is how far out the GFSS would like to say the outbreak will affect the US. Obviously, the Ohio Valley and New England are going in for it more than the midwest, so I adjusted the title of this post accordingly.




The arctic outbreak has started. This image is CURRENT from the ECMWF model of higher elevation temperatures. The Canadian air reserves have been tapped, and now the cold begins.

What the EMCWF keeps saying is that it will not go down as far as it was going yesterday. But it is siding with yesterday's GFS and moving the outbreak into New England.



Monday, November 29, 2010

Arctic Outbreak MW/GL Update #1

Okay. Here's the first update.

I just refreshed the GFS model.

So, in this new model image of upper air temps, we can see, compared to earlier forecasts, the GFS is pushing the outbreak farther around all angles of the country. So the GFS has dared to go this far instead of hanging pack in the past model run.

Another update tomorrow.

Farewell.

Arctic Outbreak MW/GL Part 2

















This is the second update to the possible outbreak of arctic air in the MW/GL in 7 days.
I have updated this for more evidence. The GFS has put up images of the outbreak. The following is a series of images from the GFS.

Arctic Outbreak MW/GL?!?!?




Yes, that's right folks! The ECMWF model has put out the fact that an arctic outbreak may occur this week in the Midwest and Great Lakes region.







This time period was in the 7 day range going into 8 day range. Yes I know, not very reliable.


The above picture is from the ECMWF model made in Europe. I clearly outlined the area where the MW/GL are may see some very cold air.




Below is the same general time period from the GFS.



So we can see the very cold Canadian air flowing in from the North. And some spotty lake effect showers by the Eastern GL.





I also analyzed another picture from the GFS about temps in the range that the first picture from the ECMWF model was indicating.




So the GFS gives us the same scoop about this.
So we have two major models predicting a very cold period to come in the next week.

I did check the ensembles, but they aren't particularly throwing that in. However, with two well known and reputable models versus several unheard of models, I believe that there is quite a chance that the GL/MW area could see an arctic outbreak in about 6 or 7 days.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

WRF-AVN Model run

This is for the next 60 hours.

So, in hour 30, the AVN was tracking the storm that had come from the Northwest faster than the WRF was. The AVN had the front edge of the storm in the Dakotas and the WRF hadn't got there yet.

In hour 36-42, the AVN keeps moving along, prompting a squall line?? to form in Iowa while the WRF is only begining to do that in hour 42.

In hour 48, both models have caught up with each other, but the WRF remains a tad slow. Both models show another storm from the NW come in. The AVN shows higher overall totals in the NW than the WRF.

In hour 60, both models are on the same page in all levels.

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Notice!!

Due to our high ratings with international folk, I will be setting up a page for Canada and a page for Europe's weather. Each will contain comprehensive coverage of all things weather. The first page could be up by tonight.

2010-2011 Winter Storm Track

video

Notice

The storm track has been posted on the winter page along with very slight updates to two areas.

2010-2011 Winter Storm Track

All tracks are from Left to Right.

Notice

I have determined one storm track for this winter. It will be posted later today on the US Winter Forecast.

Low Ensembles (HPC)






Good morning/noontime everyone! We're going to do a short post about the position of the lows then we'll pump out some Weather Explained topics for you!



Okay. So above, we have the original image of forecast low tracks and ensembles from the HPC.

Below is what I believe may happen based in that image.




So, I took the majority of ensembles in the New England/Canada area. I also outlined areas of uncertainty based on the placement of the ensembles.

Friday, November 26, 2010

Thanks!

Thanks to people everywhere for breaking my record for 24 hours of views- 170 views!
Special Thanks to Greece who got 125 views.

Long Range Ensemble Run, Long Range GFS run

This is a combined post of an ensemble run into 14 days from now and the GFS, both usual and long-range modes.

We'll start off with the ensembles. And boy are there a lot.
Going into the first two days, all the ensembles show a low coming onshore from the Northwest weakening as it does so. With all the members approving of this, I will approve as well.

In the following two days, some models take the low strengthening in Canada and others show it to stay disorganized. In all cases, a cold front forms a squall line starting in Canada and extending through Madison, Chicago. What really surprised me though, was how, in just one ensemble, there was a tight area of low pressure right centred in the North Illinois area. However, since it is just one ensemble, I will not worry much about it, but will watch it.

In the 4-6 day range, right away in day 4, 9 out of the 12 ensembles report a well defined area of low pressure in the Canada region. Additionally, some of the members keep the squall line of precip moving quicker than the others.
Continuing on in the same 4-6 day range, then 4 ensembles reported a low pressure centred in the Canada region above the Great Lakes. One member even took it out farther into Canada. By now, the squall line is taking different shapes with different members. 2 ensembles already have the squall line off shore while everyone else is moving along around the Carolinas north and south in a roughly defined line.
Still in the 5 day area, all but one member of the 12 ensembles are reporting the squall line moving out. They are also differing on the placement of a low pressure. One puts it above the Great Lakes in Canada, while another puts the same area in the clear. From now on this'll be a wild ride. A couple members even have the low breaking off into two weaker lows.
Finally, as the 4-6 day range ends, the members have taken the squall line away and put lows in Canada anywhere from East to Central Canada regions.

For the 6-10 day region, the models will likely by hugely different. By now, all models have the squall line far out to sea. But the lows are still all over the place. Even the thickness levels vary by a lot of miles.
Moving 12 hours on, nearly all the models are showing yet another squall line possibly begin to form. The Great Lakes and the Texas-Louisiana regions are the first to start off. Right now, the Great Lakes precip is a toss-up, likely landing on a rain/ice mix. Or a Snow/ice mix. Again, thicknesses are all over the place. The models have taken their own opinions.
12 hours later, the supposed squall line has not formed. The Great Lakes region is petty much half and half on whether it's precip or not. The majority of the thicknesses show the line fairly close to the Lower Great Lakes and in the South Illinois/Central Illinois area. This leads me to think that any precip in that area would be a wintry mix.
12 hours ahead, the models finally agree on something: another low pressure comes in from the Northwest. Most place it as a pretty organized storm, but the holdouts place it as somewhat disorganized. Either way, the members that do show Chicago receiving snow say that the thickness will create a rainy event possibly. The non-precip members keep the thickness down south. Meanwhile, some models place the Northwest low dividing into two areas of precip and then moving off.
Another 12 hours passes. The models mostly hit pretty much all of the Great Lakes with a precip area. I would say a snow/ice/ rain? event. So maybe rain to snow in Chicago, snow showers in Madison, snow showers in Detroit, etc. One member has a low suddenly exploding in Louisiana. I deny that because it's only one member.
Another 12 hours. Just about every one now agrees on some sort of precip hitting the Great Lakes, with it possibly impacting the Gulf Coast area south of the West Great Lakes. A heavy majority of the models still keep that Northwest low in the mix, but one member has that low combine into the mostly Wisconsin precip. I think there will be two lows: One in the GL (Great Lakes), and one in the NW (Northwest). Some models still dont bring precip to Madison or Detroit.
Continuing on to the end, the ensembles end up going in different directions. Most bring some precip through the East Coast while others declare a low suddenly booming in the Heartland. All the models agree on yet another NW low coming through. Most models project precip for either the Great Lakes or the South. Some don't have any at all except for the NW low and the precip moving out to the Atlantic.
In the end, the models keep ushering in more and more NW lows and dragging them through the North US. Some models bring some rain into the South, while others don't bother.

WE'RE NOT DONE YET!!!!!!

Now we go to the Long Range GFS.
The LR GFS shows the Great Lakes getting hit with a snow/ice storm with maybe a hint of rain right off the bat. That low then trails off to the Atlantic where it stalls and becomes a monstrosity. It even gives the GL region a backlash from an 'arm' that sweeps the area from the storm.

Well, that's finally it.
JUST KIDDING!!! One more thing: Meteogram.

Chicago's meteogram says a rain storm with possible thunderstorms with high instability on November 30th. But the meteogram doesn't show convective precip...hmmm....
Moving on, another rain storm impacts the area going into the 4th of December. If that turns out to be snow, it'll be a big one.
Into the last one, it goes off with rain on Dec. 5-6th then convective snow (thundersnow) periodically until December 12th.

This has been your Long Range Ensemble Run, your Long Range GFS run, and your meteogram all in one. Too much for one post, eh? Yeah, I thought so too.
Alright, have a good day/morning/night/evening!!

Ensemble 2 1/2 days

Good evening! Well, I managed to find a LOT of ensembles which will definitely aid me in providing the most accurate forecast to you.

So, I ran an ensemble for the precip for the next 2 and a half days.

There are two models - the WRF and the AVN (NCEP).

About a day or so from now, the WRF has the front dissipate a bit quicker than the AVN shows it dissipating.

Also, 2 days from now, the WRF has a low in the Northwest pull in more organized than the AVN projects it to.

In the end of the run, both models show the low to be somewhat weak as it's over the Northwest.

What do I think?
Well, the AVN was more detailed in the line of thickness, so i'm veering towards that the low will weaken as it moves onshore.

Updates possible tomorrow.

500th Post!!

This is the 500th post of the Weather Centre. In honor of this, we will be featuring several Weather Explained topics. There will also be a new Weather Explained page with links to all past Weather Explained posts. Happy Black Friday!

Weather Explained: Thundersnow


This is our third segment of Weather Explained.

What is thundersnow??
Thundersnow is like a thunderstorm in snow formation. There are four types of thundersnow (info from wikipedia)
  • A normal thunderstorm on the leading edge of a cold front or warm front that can either form in a winter environment or one that runs into cool air and where the precipitation takes the form of snow.
  • A heavy synoptic snowstorm in the comma head of an extratropical cyclone that sustains strong vertical mixing which allows for favorable conditions for lightning and thunder to occur.
  • A lake effect or ocean effect thunderstorm which is produced by cold air passing over relatively warm water; this effect commonly produces snow squalls over the Great Lakes.
  • A cold front containing extremely cold air aloft, steepening lapse rates and causing strong vertical movement which allows for favorable conditions for lightning and thunder to occur
Is Thundersnow Dangerous?
Well, do you think a thunderstorm is dangerous? Yes it is.
So, thundersnow is pretty much a thunderstorm with snow instead of rain. So it
s just about as dangerous as a thunderstorm.

Our next Weather Explained will focus on Mesocyclones.

Potential Great lakes Snowstorm

Good Morning! Hope y'all had a good Thanksgiving!

Okay, let's get right down to the business here. As the title states, the Great Lakes could see a pretty nice snowstorm on December 4th.

The Long Range GFS is indicating that Chicago could get hit the worst.
The probability of that happening is roughly in the 60 percent range.

By the way, the snowstorm I indicated yesterday on the Long Range GFS will not be happening. So my probability does work.

Temperatures in the clouds should be just close enough to produce snow.

The meteograms are indicating snow, possible thundersnow which will be next in our Weather Explained.

Thundersnow is like a storm. It puts down precip fast. So thundersnow would mean a quick-producing snow system.

More updates as more info comes in.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Arctic OUTBREAK?!??


That's right, folks! An Arctic outbreak could occur in the East Great Lakes area on December 9th.



In the above picture, we see the Jet Stream diving south from the Canadian regions. It will mainly affect the Nation's Heartland, but the Great Lakes could get in on the action.

The probability of this in the Great Lakes is 14% to 29% according to my formula.
For the Heartland, The chance is about 29% as well.

But other models show this as higher. Using an additional formula, the new chance is now 64%.

Will it play out? We'll have to wait and see.

Great Lakes GFS model 12/11

On December 11, the Long Range GFS is projecting a snow area to pop up in the Great Lakes into the far east Heartland.

How reliable is this?
Using my secret formula of prediction, the total comes out to 6% reliability. So it may not be too reliable.

Northwest Storm

So this is a graphic depicting a storm coming in through the Northwest. It looks like it could be a strong storm.
Models are showing the storm coming in by crawling on the West Coast.
The GFS is showing the storm weakening as it tracks along.
It is forecast to move along the Upper Midwest tracking into Canada.
However, it will suddenly explode as a squall line into the Lower Great Lakes.

However, the NAM is displaying the storm coming in a bit more south than the GFS and weakening quicker.

This is the only update on this storm system, with a possible RAINcast for the Southeast.

Your Thanksgiving Day Forecast

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Weather Explained: Training Storms

This is our second segment of Weather Explained, where we explain unknown weather words and phenomenon.

This segment will focus in on Training Storms.

What is Training?
Training is when precipitation begins to reappear over the same area over and over again.
Radar shows this as a line of showers or storms that seems to keep going and keep reappearing with new showers or storms over the same spot.

Why are training storms such a big deal?
Because training storms are the masters of flooding. Ever had a basement flooded? Maybe your street? Your front yard? Storms that train can do that quicker than any other storm.

Are training storms as dangerous as other storms?
Nope. They're the same storms. Kind of like a cell. It divides and reproduces with the same DNA. That's kinda how training storms function.

Can they be tornadic?
Well, if other storms in the same batch, system or front are, then they could be.

This has been the second Weather Explained session. Join us in a few minutes for MesoCyclones.

Special Weather Advisory (East US)

A Special Weather Advisory is now in effect for the Eastern US, starting with Indiana southward in a straight line.

I am issuing this advisory for a HEAVY RAIN fear.

Over the next 7 days, 2 cold fronts will go through the area. Each will explode in Indiana and race eastward as potential squall lines.

In both cases, these fronts affect the entire East US.

How high is the flood risk?
Well, I would say that everyone in this advisory is under a MODERATE risk due to how the same scenario comes up twice in 7 days.

Rain accumulations may be upwards of an inch, with more than 2 inches if storms begin training
(repeating in the same spot).

A watch may be issued for this area going in to Black Friday if the model stays the same.

Meteograph 11/24


This is your average-day meteograph.
Let's focus on the lower map. It is a precip map. So, I'm only gonna mention December 4th in to 5th. I predict a possibly significant storm could strike. This is for Chicago.

However, December is still a while away, so we'll have to wait and see.

Snow model runs

The models are spitting out different precip evaluations. But they say that the Lower Great Lakes could see a pinch or two of snow, then snow increases as the front moves off to the East

12/09 Potential Great Lakes Snowstorm Update #1

Well, I ran the GFS and checked out some long-range meteograms (seperate charts).

It has been concluded that the storm system will probably not hit us, rather produce a batch of flurries.

This was expected due to the range of its forecasting.

HOWEVER! A recently updated meteogram indicates that this time period will have a low pressure. Not a low pressure SYSTEM, but a low pressure reading.

This usually indicates some form of weather.

This is the FINAL update for this period unless another event occurs.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

GFS model Runs

I will be posting potential storms for the Great Lakes strictly unless there is a strong storm occurring.

So, let's get on with it.

GREAT LAKES

I believe that in the next couple days, there will be a wintry mix of a storm on the 25th. I think it will be mostly rain, but ice pellets may occur due to the closeness of thickness.

A more important event will occur on the 5th of December. Before I explain, it is essential for you to know that this is on the GFS long range model, and it is unlikely that it will stay relatively the same.
So on December 4th into 5th, in the wake of a strong low pressure, snow may occur. The thickness will be fine for snow to occur. Accumulations I would estimate at maximum 6 inches.

On December 9th, an even more important event may take place. This is the furthest out the model can go, so I wouldn't count on it too much until a couple days before.
But right now, the GFS is saying that a possibly significant snowstorm could erupt in the Great Lakes. Accumulations could be well beyond 6 inches. It is hard to tell.

EAST U.S.

There is essentially only one thing to say: Throughout the next couple weeks, low pressure systems will go through the Central US. Cold fronts will spurt squall line-type storms in every event. They appear to have the possibility to train (stay in one place for a long time) and create dangerous flooding conditions.

WEST U.S.

For the next two weeks, mostly, some minor storms will come through, even a major storm will go through.
But they will mostly intensify in the Central US.


That's about it for now.
More updates tomorrow, mostly individually.

12/09 Potential Great Lakes Snowstorm

On December 9th, a significant snow storm could occur in the Great Lakes. The thickness will be WELL below the maximum level needed for snow to occur. It is so far off and doesn't even lead through the Long-Range GFS model graphics because it's so far off. We should know more tomorrow. Updates tomorrow.

12/05 Potential Great Lakes Snow Event

The long range GFS is reporting the possibility of a major rain-to- snowstorm in the Great Lakes on Dcember 4th-5th.

I am not sure at all, mainly because it is so far off. More updates tomorrow.

11/23 SNOWcast

This is a SNOWcast for November 23rd.

At this time...a storm system is moving through the US.

It has put up Winter Weather Watches, Winter Weather Warnings, Blizzard Warnings.

For more Info, go to www.weather.gov

Current Winter Warnings (Dark blue, Pink, Orange/red)

11/30 Potent Lower Great Lakes Snow Bulletin.

Good afternoon everyone! It's getting close to Turkey Day!

Anyway, I just ran the GFS for the first time in a couple days. On November 30th, I would not be surprised to see some snow flurries.

They would come in the wake of a cold front forecast to come through very soon.

More updates as more information comes in.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #10

If the thickness were lower, the Lower Great Lakes would be in for a very nice snow.

Now, it looks like rain.

Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #9

This is an urgent update.

According to the GFS model, the November 23rd event will be 2 waves of rain and maybe an embedded t-storm.

More urgent, is the November 25th. Thickness will be ABOVE the max level required for snow. Meaning, RAIN SHOULD FALL. However, there are more factors than just that.

The likely scenario will be rain turning to snow by night. However, there is a chance that this will be a rain event with only a couple ice pellets in between if the environment is not sufficient for snow.


Saturday, November 20, 2010

Current Warniongs

The purple, pink are w9inter weather advisoryies.

Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #8

November 23rd is saying that we will get rain, maybe a storm.

November 25th is no longer saying that there is a sure chance of snow. Now it is saying about rain and maybe a touch of ice. This is a MAJOR change. However, it is the thickness that says it. I will be running as many models as i can, if i can.

But I am really surprised. After days of indicating snow, the thickness suddenly draws back.

I'll have to keep analyzing this.

Potential Southeast Rain Event Update #1

Good morning! Hope you've all had your morning cup of coffee.

Let's get to it. I've been monitoring the Southeast for the entire week. I have not wavered off on it.

My findings are that an intense cold front will move through the Southeast area. I would not be surprised to find that it turns to a squall line.

That's really all it's shown is that.

So we will end the update with confidence of strong storms possible and downpours almost certain in the Southeast associated with a cold front this Thanksgiving week.

Maybe another update tomorrow.

Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #7

Good morning everyone! It's Saturday. And although the football teams aren't playing today, the weather always changes. So let's get started.

The GFS is sticking with the possibility of sticking snow in North Illinois, and possibly a very nice storm in Wisconsin. Ah, did you see the pun???? Ah??? Yeah, it wasn't a good one. I did not intend that.

Moving on! Another meteorologist is analyzing it as a potent weather system. Why? I'm not sure. I bet he's checking other models and ensembles.

I have just checked the Probability for precipitation for November 25th. It shows that Wisconsin AND us will have the majority of the same chances for precip. Although Wisconsin has just a SMALL TINT of more precip by the lake, all other chances for precip are same.

Well, that's about all the info I have right now.


Friday, November 19, 2010

Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #6

Good evening everyone! So, it's been 4 hours since I last updated you guys and gals with the latest GFS run. Well, it's been updated again, so here I am to break the news to you.

So, let's start off with who's supposed to get the worst of this.
The thickness will be right all over the Lakes, so no worries for ice and/or rain.
WISCONSIN!!! They will be receiving the brunt of the snow.
I cannot find an accumulation map so far in the future, so i'll estimate that this could be a pretty nice storm. Maybe 6 inches in the Wisconsin area, 8 inches in some spots.

The NWS forecast itself is honestly putting itself in to my forecast.
I did not look at it before I issued all these updates.

Anyways, continuing, I guess thickness does not create all the confidence.

By the way, Wisconsin people, expect freezing rain up north. Watch out.

This has been the 6th update to the possible Great Lakes snow event. Tomorrow morning, there will be another update.

SNOWcast November 19th

Good afternoon!

I am issuing a SNOWcast because I just ran the NAM model and found something that has to be taken note of.

In the next couple days, an intense snow storm will attack the North Plains, carry in to Canada, and continue its track across the diameter of Canada. It will carry Snow up north, but ice pellets down south during the storm's reign.

This has been a SNOWcast, courtesy of The Weather Centre.

Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #5

Good afternoon everybody! Talk about TGIF.

I just ran the GFS fully. It says passing showers turning in to a nice rain on November 23rd. As it gets closer, it's a pretty good bet for showers.

For the 25th, The GFS is saying a less intense storm will pull through and just skim the North Illinois area but cover Wisconsin.

A lake snow machine will kick in in Michigan after the 25th for a day.

I am running the Long-Range GFS. It says, for the Great Lakes, that after a cold blast, the area will get a very nice warm-up. Still will have to monitor it.

The NAM model shows rain showers for the 23rd.

This isn't much of an update, and very short, but it's a new run from the models.
Enjoy the weekend!


Long Range GFS

Northwest- A low pressure with central pressure of 972mb could occur on Saturday, nov. 27th.

Urgent New England Update

Remember that Low Pressure I told you was supposed to be insane? Well, it disappeared. It literally is gone. However, there is a moderate low pressure that moves in the previous track of the old one then rapidly strengthens as it stalls at sea.

On Nov. 25th, light rain/snow is possible.

That is all.

Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #4

Good morning everyone. I did run the GFS again this morning just now, and I will tell you my findings.

We're focusing in on the November 25th event first. So, the GFS is playing it out somewhat like this: Light to moderate snow. All precip in North Illinois ONLY, moderate-heavy snow in Wisconsin.

In future runs, this precip spreads in to Michigan.

Why am I mentioning this? Because the thickness is right and the cold front has already passed. This is a fine opportunity for snow to form.

Since the GFS has been hinting at precip for the last 3 days, I'm believing it more and more with each model run.

Alrighty. Moving on to our November 23rd event. If nothing comes out of it, this will be its final update.

The GFS would only display very light precipitation in North Illinois on November 22ND. ONE DAY EARLIER.

Anyways, That precip will be rain, because the thickness is above the maximum level needed for snow.

Conclusion: Light rain on Nov. 22nd, Sticking snow possible on Ill. Wis. borders, snowstorm possible in Wisconsin moving into Michigan.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Potential New England Heavy Snow Event update #1

This is the 1st update to a possible New England heavy snow event.

Let's get to the skinny of it.

So, a low pressure system will keep up along the Northern portion of the US. A cold front will suddenly develop and blitz through the East US. The low pressure, however, will deepen.

The low pressure will deepen ridiculously. So much that the GFS is kicking out a prediction that by Friday, November 26th, the central pressure could be 976 millibars. That is truly ridiculous.
I think that would be terribly windy.

The 1000-500mb pressure, which defines if precip is snow or rain, will be low enough to create snow in North Maine and Far East Canada. It will bombard areas close to and in Nova Scotia, Canada.

I think that, if the model says what it is saying now, this pressure could be stronger than the mega october storm the Upper Midwest folks experienced.

That's all for now. I will post more updates to keep y'all on the watch.
Only here, at the Weather Centre.

No one provides you more coverage. No one.

Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #3

This is the 3rd update to a potential Lower Great Lakes Snow.

I have now expanded this into the Wisconsin area.

So! How's your evening? Or morning? Or lunch break? How is your day so far? Mine's good. Let's get to the weather.

I ran the GFS again. I run it a couple times a day. I decided to analyze the map fully and found the 1000-500mb thickness line. The thickness line is what says snow or rain. Anything below the maximum is snow, anything above is rain. Anything relatively close is a mix or ice.

There is a light-moderate area of precip in the Lower Great Lakes and Wisconsin area below the thickness level and does meet snow requirements. It comes in the wake of an intense low pressure.

The date of this event is November 25th. I know I said there was also one on November 23rd, but that one is dicey. We'll get to it anyhow soon.

Anyways, the November 25th event could last from 00z (6am CDT) to about 00z (6am CDT) Nov. 26th. These timings are very unsure, but the snow could waver from light to moderate. It would likely be lighter as the day goes on.

By the way, I'm looking at the GFS pretty concerned. Remember the super October storm in the Upper Midwest? I'm seeing the low pressure I mentioned earlier at a central pressure of 986mb. That is seriously low. I will deliver an update to the New England area after this Great Lakes update.

But seriously: If that plays out as it looks, the New England area could get whapped with wild wind. The thickness would be low enough, so blizzard conditions could occur.

Now, let's move on to that November 23rd event. As I said, this morning's run was pretty dicey, as was last night's. But, let's run it again.

The GFS is telling that there could be some precip, but it is unsure. The model only covers 6 hour intervals, and it's not revealing that area. So, I'm going to take a guess. I think there will be drizzle and probably a light shower. The front will strangthen as it moves through. However, the thickness will not be enough to support snow flakes in the Lower Great Lakes.

I will monitor it, but I will DEFINITELY monitor the November 25th event. When the model starts to show over and over again of the same precip in an area, it's a bigger than normal chance of precip in that area.

There will definetely be more updates as the time goes on.
Only at The Weather Centre.

Potential Southwest Rain Event


This is the first version of a Potential Southwest heavy rain event.
Okay. The risks associated with this storm include the following:
-Wind, Rain and ice.

This is the result of a forecast 992mb low pressure system that will move through the East US as a cold front. It will be very strong, and I fully anticipate a very heavy rain event. Why not snow? Because the 1000-500mb thickness level (the level needed for snow) will be above the maximum. However, the GFS model is displaying the thickness line being somewhat close to the area. Thus, I anticipate at least a little sleet.

Ice? Not much. If any, the thickness will have to be a bit lower an the temps in the clouds lower as well.

Thanks for looking.
Stay tuned for more updates at The Weather Centre.


Potential New England Heavy Snow Event


This is a statement for the Potential Heavy Snowstorm over New England.


The above image is for 6 days from now. It says 7 because today is known as 'Day 1' in the weather world.
Anyways, the image shows a lot of isobars. The more isobars are close together, the windier it is. I usually put together New England with cold weather, so this one was a quick put-together.
This low pressure system is pretty strong with a central pressure of 992 millibars.
At this time, I went over the GFS model, which is showing quite a messy cold front advancing on the New England area. That being said, I checked the temperatures in the clouds at that time.
The temps were actually a little mild, so I'll have to stop short of calling this a white-out.

Conclusion: Snow, sleet, rain will make for a messy Thanksgiving week on November 24th.
Stay tuned for more updates, here, on the Weather Centre.

Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #2

This is the 2nd update to the possible lower Great Lakes snow event on Nov. 23rd or 25th.

It looks like that the area may experience a light snowfall on the 23rd and same on the 25th.

However, a different area of attention is on the Southeast.
A cold front moving through the area will slow down laying down precip over a couple days' span.
I predict that the precip will be pretty much all rain.
Maybe some sleet closer up north and close to the front, but mainly rain.

The next update will be later tonight.
Due to current conditions, it may be the final update and this will transition over to a Potential Southeast Rain event.

Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #1

Hello everyone! This is an update to the Possible Lower Great Lakes' first snow in Chicago, maybe Detroit. I know Chicago hasn't had its first flakes yet.

Let's get down to business. Yesterday I told you about how there would likely be some changes in the Long Range GFS model run I saw? Well, it changed in a matter of 10 hours.

Now, it appears the precip will begin in the Ohio Valley and rapidly intensify as it develops as a cold front.

It looks like, for right now, Chicago won't be getting any snow for November 23rd.

HOWEVER! On an extended run of the GFS, I noticed two storm systems sliding through on November 25th. They came through the Lower Great Lakes. They were relatively minor and wouldn't put down any amount more than 4 inches in outlying areas of Chicago.

Additionally, I saw a much more potent cold front that really was intense. It appeared on the models as orange. I would relate that to an inch of snow an hour if the weather was cold enough.

I know how some kids are jealous in Chicago and some are happy in the Ohio Valley. But, there is a new graph I just checked.

The temperature graph on the GFS indicated that Temperatures may be too warm up in the clouds to produce snow. I would expect a mix in all areas, with maybe a majority of flakes right by the front.

In conclusion, No snow Nov. 23rd, Snow the 25th for the Great Lakes. Ohio Valley, keep an eye out for both those days.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Potential Great Lakes Snow

After consulting with the Long-Range GFS (Global Forecast System), I decided it would be wise to inform you about the possible snow event for the Lower Great Lakes.

According to 2 temperature graphs at different heights, it does appear that the Lower Great Lakes will be in a mild spell. A warm front will come through, strengthening as it moves through. The GFS spells out that the precip could be intense.

Current doubts are obvious. One is that the supposed event is supposed to happen on November 23. About 6 days from now. In weather time, there's a huge amount of uncertainty.

Another doubt is for the snow. It appears that the front strengthens in about the NW Indiana area.
I believe that, although it will certainly change in one way or another, that if it works out as is currently projected (I'm almost guaranteeing changes), the snow could be somewhat light or moderate in cities such as Chicago, but really kick up in areas like Gary, Indiana or Detroit.

So, that's a brief preview in to a possible snow event for the next week or so.
Stay tuned to he Weather Centre to keep up to date on all the info.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Model run NAM

The NAM says a strong storm will deepen down south. It will slide up north just shy of New England. It looks like it will stay more by the Ohio area, maybe even touching Chicago.
The NAM continues to say a storm will slide in to the Pacifc Northwest with quite a bit of precip.
A weak low pressure system will go through Central Illinois, creating precip in that area.
That low in the Pacifc Northwest appears to be seperating. One will continue horizontally on the border of Canada and the US. The other one will weaken and stay in the Northwest.

Midwest Perfect Winter Storm Set-up

(This is informational and is not forecast)

A low pressure dives through the Pacifc Northwest. It is deepening, thus producing more and more precip. A positive PNA and negative AO are in effect.

The storm enters below in the Central Illinois area.
Snow as high as over 16 inches came over the area.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast Update (USA)

Hello everyone. This is a brief update to the 2010-2011 Winter Forecast for the USA.

All indications are that the AO index will dive negative. This spells a snowy time for the Great Lakes area and cold, smack on. However, we are focusing on a long range forecast.

A certain website is indicating that the Great Lakes area will not receive heavy snow. I highly doubt that. They indicate less Ohio Valley precip. Ohio Valley WILL get more precip. The Great Lakes WILL get more precip. However, this certain site is indicating that the ice storm risk is significantly increased.

I will consider the potential for temperature swings and jet stream shifts that will probably bring an ice storm or two.

A positive PNA and negative AO indexes will spell a very intense winter. So how is this year's PNA shaping up?

This year's PNA for the next 14 days looks like negative turning positive.
The next 14 day AO certainly will turn negative.
This likely means a possibly moderately snowy period over the next 2 weeks.

Long range? Hard to tell, but with many indications showing not just the Ohio valley in a snow threat this la nina year, I think the AO will be negative.
The PNA, when positive, means a stormy and cold time in the Midwest.

Notice to viewers

The Snow Centre will be re-formed as a page. Due to its complexity, it will not be published until likely this weekend or so.

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Midwest snowstorm tallies (from the NWS)

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME  ------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------  11.00   EDEN PRAIRIE             MN  HENNEPIN         1030 AM  11.00   1 SSW WYOMING            MN  CHISAGO          0400 PM  10.10   NEW HOPE                 MN  HENNEPIN         0102 PM  10.00   MONTGOMERY               MN  LE SUEUR         1130 AM                  STILL SNOWING.  10.00   3 N FOREST LAKE          MN  CHISAGO          0104 PM                  SO FAR  10.00   SW BURNSVILLE            MN  DAKOTA           0216 PM   9.80   CHANHASSEN               MN  CARVER           0510 PM   9.50   NEW MARKET               MN  SCOTT            0258 PM   9.40   RUSH CITY                MN  CHISAGO          0445 PM   9.40   RUSH CITY                MN  CHISAGO          0510 PM   9.20   ST LOUIS PARK            MN  HENNEPIN         0605 PM   9.00   3 NNW MINNEAPOLIS        MN  HENNEPIN         1243 PM                  STORM TOTAL SO FAR   9.00   CHISAGO CITY             MN  CHISAGO          0301 PM   8.90   2 W PRIOR LAKE           MN  SCOTT            1239 PM   8.60   MADELIA                  MN  WATONWAN         1025 AM   8.50   1 SE CHASKA              MN  CARVER           0112 PM   8.50   EDINA                    MN  HENNEPIN         0505 PM   8.30   5 SE ELK RIVER           MN  ANOKA            0148 PM   8.20   WACONIA                  MN  CARVER           0426 PM                  TOTAL SO FAR   8.00   WINNEBAGO                MN  FARIBAULT        1010 AM                  STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.   7.50   2 ESE MINNETONKA         MN  HENNEPIN         1115 AM                  GLEN LAKE AREA.   7.30   BLOOMINGTON              MN  HENNEPIN         1248 PM   7.00   GLENCOE                  MN  MCLEOD           0150 PM   7.00   WOODBURY                 MN  WASHINGTON       0335 PM   6.80   2 NNE RUSH CITY          MN  CHISAGO          1030 AM   6.50   1 ENE INVER GROVE HEIGH  MN  DAKOTA           1115 AM   6.50   2 SSW CAMBRIDGE          MN  ISANTI           1239 PM   6.50   WOODBURY                 MN  WASHINGTON       0505 PM   6.20   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           0505 PM   6.00   JANESVILLE               MN  WASECA           1027 AM   6.00   5 S FARMINGTON           MN  DAKOTA           0505 PM   5.50   LEWISVILLE               MN  WATONWAN         1015 AM                  STILL SNOWING.   5.40   CHAMPLIN                 MN  HENNEPIN         0335 PM   5.00   1 E CUMBERLAND           WI  BARRON           0205 PM   4.70   5 NE FOREST LAKE         MN  CHISAGO          1245 PM   4.50   2 N ELKO                 MN  SCOTT            0139 PM                  IN PAST 6 HOURS...7.5 ON GROUND   4.00   CLAYTON                  WI  POLK             1230 PM                  FOUR INCH BRANCH DOWN DUE TO WEIGHT OF SNOW.                  LIGHT SNOW STILL FALLING AT TIMES.   4.00   MORA                     MN  KANABEC          0211 PM   3.80   11 NE WARMAN             MN  KANABEC          0150 PM                  STILL SNOWING.   3.00   1 ENE INVER GROVE HEIGH  MN  DAKOTA           1237 PM                  SNOW DEPTH 8.5   3.00   WNW FARIBAULT            MN  RICE             0112 PM   1.70   7 S HILLMAN              MN  MORRISON         0313 PM   1.00   7 S HILLMAN              MN  MORRISON         0130 PM                  MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

Friday, November 12, 2010

Weather: Explained notice

A series of Weather: Explained will be introduced to this blog.
For its debut, The Weather Centre will feature several topics.
There will be a page about it notifying viewers of the next Weather Explained topic and when it will be featured.

Notice

The Snow Centre is no longer functioning due to an agreement in to compromisation in to this blog.

Weather Explained: Where Snow forms

This is a first edition of Weather Explained, where we describe different weather patterns and the like.

Today, we focus upon where snow forms.
The reason why snow is forming there is due to the jet stream. The low will be tracking north northeast, so the snow follows it on the northern edge, as seen. This is typically where snow forms. Below the low pressure area, rain can be expected. Not always: temperatures play a big part.

November 12th 2010 Winter Storm Set-up Upper Midwest

This is the Official Winter Briefing for the Upper Midwest winter storm.

Below is our first graphic from the National Weather Service. We can see how heavy the snow is. The pink areas are heaviest, and lesser amounts in purple.

Below is the National graphic for today from the HPC; part of the NOAA. We can see the low pressure is right there, providing the energy. I'll be honest, this is possible snow day material, and definitely snow fort material.
Below is the chance today for 4 inches of snow or more from the HPC. The red means likely 4 inches, maybe 5. The green area is probably a max of 4 inches, and blue people can expect a max of 3 inches.

Below is a HPC graphic of 8 inches or more. In the green areas, I would expect about 6 inches. In the blue, I would expect 4 inches, 5 max.






So, as a wrap-up, this storm will produce possibly significant accumulations in Duluth. This is the only briefing.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Important

The Snow Command Centre is no longer going to happen.
Instead, find it on our new blog!!
http://thesnowcommandcentre.blogspot.com

Winter has begun...

The jet stream has shown more storms to the Pacific Northwest, thus indication the transition to winter has begun.

Monday, November 8, 2010

Sunday, November 7, 2010

2010-2011 Winter Update 11/6

To clear up questions, this La Nina is expected to be a REGULAR La nina. Other reports had thought of a irregular La Nina. However, it is currently following its track as expected based on comparisons from similar years of La Nina.

November 6th forecast for the US

A high pressure is settled across the eastern part of the country, and no precip is in the central or eastern parts of the US. However, in the west, a cold front coming ashore will bring rain and possibly a mix of sleet and rain.

Notice

The Tropics page and Tomas page have been taken down. The Hurricane season is mostly over.

Current US Temperatures

Friday, November 5, 2010

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Notice to all viewers!

An unexpected change has lead to a decision. A 4th version of the 2010-2011 USA Winter Forecast will be released.

Expected release date: November 11th, 2010
Level of change: Substantial
Length of post: Medium-Long
Next update on progress: Tomorrow @ 5pm CDT.

Tomas Impacts

Tropical Depression Tomas Noon update november 3rd: tomas will strike Haiti as a tropical storm.

Tomas' Projected Path November 3rd

Tomas has weakened to a TROPICAL DEPRESSION at this time.
However, he is forecast to restrengthen into a tropical storm, then a weak category 1 hurricane, then strike Haiti. Tomas will then fly out to sea. Below is Tomas' projected path from The Weather Channel, and below that is the projected path from the NHC.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Tomas update November 2 evening


Tomas will remain a tropical storm then become a hurricane. Likely a weak category 1. Tomas will then strike Haiti and fly out into the ocean as a tropical storm. Below is a homemade graphic.

Tomas Update 11/2

Tropical Storm Tomas (pronounced TOW-mahs) will become a weak category 1 hurricane, hit Haiti spot-on, then resume its departure in the Atlantic Ocean as a tropical storm until dissipation.

SNOWcast November 2nd




World Precip Forecast November 2nd

Notice

The 2010-2011 EUROPE winter forecast has just been updated.
The 2010-2011 UNITED STATES winter forecast has just been updated.
The 2010-2011 CANADA winter forecast has just been updated.

Monday, November 1, 2010

Today's Travel Map

San Francisco Giants Win World Series

The San Francisco Giants have won the 2010 World Series by beating the rangers 4 games to 1.
Score: 3-1

11/1/10 evening Radar Loop
























This is a loop of the recent runs of the SPC's satellite. We can see very strong storms out of Texas. These are singular cells, which are more ideal for tornadoes.

2010-2011 Winter Forecast notice

The 3rd version for the USA has been released! Find it under this post or in the 'Pages' section on the right.

Arctic Oscillation 2010-2011 Winter Forecast

ARCTIC OSCILLATION

(These oscillations are all data from the Climate Prediction Center,

or CPC. You guys rock!)


For our 2nd update, we will be focusing in on several Oscillations, including this one. The Arctic Oscillation is an atmospheric pattern. Simple enough. However, I know little about any oscillations we will be discussing. I do know how to read maps though. So let's begin.


The CPC data runs several forecasts. I took the liberty of scanning them over, and found they varied quite a bit. Long range, the forecasts indicated a turn to negative, but on

e also had a positive. A Positive period is when there are warmer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. I had taken note of the NOAA's forecast, seeing as they indicated slightly warmer temperatures may be in the northern tier of the country, anddefinitely warmer down south.

However, Accuweather gets right into that and says 'colder and snowier' for the n

orthern tier. These, both being great services, struck me as mystified. Both Positive and negative had characteristics for this winter's forecasts. Below is the images of positive and negative outlooks. The positive phase is on the left; the negative phase is on the right.



I have decided that it would be more correct at this time to veer towards the negative side at the right. I am predicting a NEGATIVE PHASE for this winter. However, that may surely change. Stay posted.


NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)


The above graphic shows the phases of a North Atlantic Oscillation. I looked at this cautiously. But look closely at New England in the negative phase. Looks like last year with the Snowicane doesn't it? Yes it does. I believe we are either going to be in a LIGHT POSITIVE PHASE or LIGHT NEGATIVE PHASE for this winter. Certainly not a snowicane again. And the CPC data agrees with me.


PACIFIC NORTH-AMERICAN OSCILLATION


Looking over the CPC's forecasts, it seemed that most of them were pointing for a Positive phase in this oscillation. In the ensembles, they all pointed to eventually going towards negative after being positive. Seeing this data, I analyzed the phases for Positive and Negative Pacific North-American oscillations. Unfortunately, there were none, so I have declared a TEMPORARY POSITIVE PHASE, followed by a NEGATIVE PHASE.


ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION


No information regarding this. However, the outlooks are saying the current positive run will fall into a BRIEF NEGATIVE PHASE, then turning into a POSITIVE PHASE.


LA NINA


La Nina will be in full swing, creating this winter's snow and weather. That is all.




Thanks for viewing my second edition of my 2010-2011 winter forecast! Updates to sections will be posted whenever new data comes in. They will be called '2nd version; whatever-number update'.

2010-2011 USA Winter Forecast 3rd version

Hello everyone. This is the official 2010-2011 Winter Forecast, the 3rd version for the USA.
This will replace the 2nd version on the USA Winter page.














Our first area, the Northwest, is not revised too much. We still expect it to be a stormy winter with not much in the way of snow. Much more rain. However, in addition to the snow in the mountains, areas relatively in or close to mountains should expect some snow and even sleet at times.

I Expect much flooding in these areas as well.



















This area, the Great Lakes, was not changed too much. I revised the lake effect snow to put more areas within its boundaries. I am confident that this was a very true revision that needed to be made. The Heaviest Snow zone remains the same, but i do expect some conflict out west with the Lake effect snow and the Icy Zone. I expect a bit more ice in the lake zone out west, with still increased snow.

Everyone else in the Heaviest Snow zone should still prepare for a very harsh winter.

For people in the Dakotas, i lessened the range of the Heaviest Snow range and pulled it back. I also added a bit more range into the Icy Zone out west as well.





















In our last area, I made quite a few revisions. I boosted up the Icy Zone range into New England in the southern area. The orange area means the Heaviest Snow zone. I extended it into this area because of the Canadian winter snow forecast. It expects heavy snow in areas like this. So, I modified it for that situation. Temperature swings still expected in the Icy Zone, probably affecting all of New England in the process.








For our summary, I did expand the Dry and Warm zone a bit farther into the Carolinas. The Icy Zone was brought up to New England, and Even a bit on the Northwest was expanded out towards the east. The Heaviest snow zone was drawn back a bit out of the Dakotas. Alaska was officially stated as 'Very Cold', especially in early 2011. Potentially tornadic situation setting up in the East Texas area to Florida region. Thanks for viewing this.
A 4th version MAY come out. If it does, do not expect big revisions.
Thanks for viewing this!!

Indonesia Volcano eruption status

The Indonesian volcano Mount Merapi erupted again today.
I have put the status at a CODE RED status.
A code red means no one is advised to go near the volcano or to check on livestock.
Anyone near the volcano is in serious danger of perishing.
Stay away from the volcano and villages in the way of lava flows.
Livestock is NOT more important than human lives.

NOTICE 11/1

TOMORROW, THE OFFICIAL 2010-2011 WINTER FORECAST 3RD VERSION WILL BE RELEASED. IT WILL NOT BE AS LONG, AND WILL REPLACE THE CURRENT VERSION ON THE PAGE.

Election Day forecast

It looks like most of the country will have a nice Election Day.
Down south in the Louisiana area will experience some rain and storms.
My advice: If it's sunny when you wake up, there's a good chance it'll stay that way for the day.
Cool up North, warm down south.

Special Weather Warning

A Special Weather Warning has been issued for Southeast Texas.

A SLIGHT RISK
of severe storms was issued in this area by the SPC.
Strong to severe storms were coming onshore at this time.
Prepare for small hail, high winds, and downpours.

This warning will expire at 10:00pm.

Tropical Storm Tomas November 1 afternoon update

Hello everyone. Tomas is a tropical storm at this time.
He will remain the tropical storm until a little later on in the week.
He will then become a hurricane again and likely directly strike Haiti as a Category 1 hurricane, then be thrown out to sea.

November 1 Snowcast

Washingotn will recieve snow in the mountain areas upwards of 12 inches.

Tomas November 1 7:05am


Hurricane Tomas has weakened to a tropical storm. Forecasts are now showing Tomas likely striking Haiti as a Category 1. However, this is more than enough to blow away tent cities in Haiti.